UFC 277: Best Longshot Odds & Picks (7/30)

Jul 29, 2022 - 5:57 PM

UFC 277 will get underway Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. This card is stacked with two titles on the line. Amanda Nunes looks to recapture gold in her rematch against Julianna Pena for the women’s bantamweight belt, while Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France battle it out for the interim flyweight title.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Don’Tale Mayes to Win via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+650)

In the prelims, we have a heavyweight bout between Don’Tale Mayes and Hamdy Abdelwahab. Mayes is coming off back-to-back wins over Roque Martinez and Josh Parisian, while Abdelwahab will be making his UFC debut after just a few professional bouts across several different promotions.

It may take Mayes a round to figure him out as Adbelwahab has just three fights to draw from in the film room, with one of those bouts lasting just 24 seconds. Additionally, Mayes must find his range as he boasts a four-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage. This reach differential could be a massive advantage for Mayes if he utilizes his range efficiently. The only fight in his career where Mayes had such a big advantage in these areas was against Roque Martinez, a bout that he won.

Mayes opened up as a -115 betting favorite and has been pushed up to his current price of -190. He’s more experienced, possesses a large-size advantage in a fight that should be standing, and is coming off two strong wins.

I foresee this fight having a feel-out round to start and then fireworks in the second round.

Julianna Pena to Win Inside the Distance (+425)

In Saturday’s main event, Julianna Pena looks to defend her bantamweight belt against Amanda Nunes. This bout is a rematch from December’s title fight, a night in which Pena pulled off one of the greatest upsets in UFC history.

However, this was not a fluky win, and Pena certainly did not have just one lucky punch. Pena was the better fighter once they got past the first round of the fight, and I believe history will repeat itself once again.

That first fight could symbolize a changing of the guard in the women’s bantamweight division, which Nunes has dominated for years. However, every great fighter eventually falls, and that could have been the start for Nunes.

When a champion fighter loses in a massive upset after dominating the sport for many years, that fighter is rarely the same afterward. We have seen this play out time and again in this sport, whether It was Ronda Rousey’s loss to Holly Holm, Anderson Silva’s loss to Chris Weidman or Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s loss to Rose Namajunas.

After those massive upset losses, all three of those fighters would go on to lose their next fight. The only fighter to ever rebound from a loss as significant as those was Georges St-Pierre.

Pena is a legit fighter. You could see her potential when she fought Valentina Shevchenko in 2017 as an up-and-comer. Even though Pena lost that fight, she held her own. Five years later, Pena now holds the bantamweight belt and will look to verify her success with yet another finish over Nunes.

Best of luck!

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