Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6: 2022 NBA Finals Top Parlay Odds & Picks (6/16)

Jun 16, 2022 - 11:03 AM

The Celtics are in a familiar spot. Down 3-2 with their playoff lives on the line. They faced this situation against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference semi-finals. They would proceed to win back-to-back games to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. 

The Warriors have also been in this situation many times in their recent history, which hasn’t always gone so well. They have not always risen when there’s a chance to close out a series, even during the NBA Finals, including losing after a 3-1 lead.

Tonight either history will repeat itself, or a narrative will change.

Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6: 2022 NBA Finals Top Parlay Odds & Picks

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics (-4) O/U 210
(Tip-Off 9 p.m. ET)

The Celtics have had trouble with turnovers a few times during the playoffs and that’s what did them in Game 5. They committed nine turnovers in the first half that resulted in 13 Warriors points, 18 overall, and are 1-7 this postseason when they turn the ball over 16 or more times. Jayson Tatum has been the worst, not this year, but in playoffs history, as he beat Lebron James’ record of 94 in 2018 with 95 turnovers. This must be cleaned up if they want a shot at extending this series.

What has to give the Warriors confidence is they didn’t need to rely on Steph Curry to be the offense as he had zero three-pointers for the first time in 132 career playoff games. Instead, Andrew Wiggins, who many scratched their head when Golden State traded for him, had another great game with 26 points and 13 rebounds, giving him a double-double in back-to-back games. They also had significant contributions from the bench: Gary Payton II had 15 points in 26 minutes and Jordan Poole 14 points in 14 minutes. If they can get plus point differentials with their second unit in, that’s huge as the Celtics’ bench has been playing well throughout the playoffs.

The Celtics’ problems are easily correctable and they’ve done it in the past. Their defense is still playing well as they held the Warriors to 9-40 from three and were also able to out-rebound them.

It’s also hard to trust Golden State in these situations, as they always seem to cringe when they have a close-out game on the road. In all three of the past series, they could have ended a series on the road and are 0-3, including that 39-point loss in Memphis.

The Celtics have been in this situation before and have found ways to regroup against outstanding opponents. You saw some unusually bad games from Jaylen Brown,  Al Horford, and even the bench didn’t contribute as they have. This will be a much better-executed performance at home to force a winner-take-all.

Leg 1: Celtics ML

Point Total O/U 210

The Celtics did a great job pressuring Curry in Game 5, but one of the greatest shooters of all isn’t putting up another goose egg from behind the arc.

Jaylen Brown also had a bad game shooting 5-18 and 0-5 from three. He’s always bounced back from a lousy game throughout the playoff and should do the same on Thursday. 

Lastly, the Celtics bench should play better after scoring just 10 points. They’ve always had someone to rely on throughout the series, whether it’s Grant Williams or Derrick White, and one or both will have a better game.

There are too many factors not to believe this will be a higher-scoring game. The total for Game 3 was 214, and after two low-scoring games, this is part of an over-adjustment. It’ll be good to take advantage of it.

Leg 2: Over 210

Jaylen Brown Point Total O/U 24.5

As previously mentioned, Brown didn’t play well in Game 5. He’s always been able to bounce back after a bad performance — during this postseason, he has scored under 20 points five times previous to Monday, and in all five, he’s scored 24 or more points in the next game. Boston isn’t going to shy away from him after one bad game. Golden State did a better job putting pressure on the front court, but Boston will adjust to give Brown better looks.

Leg 3: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points

Total Parlay Odds: +374 on FanDuel

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