Top NBA First Basket Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/1)

Dec 1, 2022 - 1:27 PM

The NBA dropped the ball today.

There’s only one NBA game on the slate: the Dallas Mavericks against the 5-18 Detroit Pistons.

But at least we can evaluate one game and find value. I’ll be looking for the first-basket scorer. Therefore, I’ll predict two players from both teams that I believe can score first.

Let’s get to it!

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(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons

The Dallas Mavericks have won the tip 60% of the time over the last ten games. Through 20 games this season, the Mavericks have also converted a 60% tip win.

Over the last ten games, the Mavericks have scored the first field goal 60% of the time while needing 2.2 shots to get the first shot to fall. This season, the Mavericks have scored the first field goal just 45% of the time.

On the other hand, the Pistons have won the tip only 43.5% of the time this season. They’ve also scored the first basket under 39,1% of the time. However, Detroit has only needed 2.1 shots to score their first field goal this season.

Over the last ten games, the Pistons have won the tip 40% of the time and scored the first field goal 60% while needing just 1.8 shots per game to score their first bucket.

The Mavericks will win the tip more often than the Pistons. However, the Pistons needed fewer shots to score the first field goal.

If you’re looking to bet on the team starting with the ball, you will likely want to back the Mavericks’ starters. However, you’d back the Pistons’ starters if you’re looking to side with the home team due to fewer shot rates to score their first field goal.

The Pistons have started Marvin Bagley III nine times in the last ten games. Bagley III has four of the team’s first field goals and three of the game’s first field goals. He’s taking 1.11 shots of the first three for the Pistons and is a major threat for Detroit if they’re going to score first.

Killian Hayes would be next in line. He’s started each of the last ten games and has scored the Pistons’ first field goal three times while scoring the game’s first field goal once.

Bet: Marvin Bagley (+550)
Bet: Killian Hayes (+1000)

On the other hand, the Mavericks don’t have a remarkably consistent player. Dwight Powell has scored the team’s first three field goals over the last ten games. He’s also notched two of the game’s first field goals in that time. Powell is only taking .5 shots of the first three shots per game, but he’s been the most consistent first scorer on the club.

Then there’s Luka Doncic, who has scored two of Dallas’ first field goals in the last ten games. Doncic has only played in nine of those ten games but still has shot .78 shots per the first three shots of a game when on the floor. He’s another option if you’re backing the Mavericks.

Bet: Dwight Powell (+900)
Bet: Luka Doncic (+430)

If one of these selections wins, you’ll profit tonight if you keep your unit size the same for each player bet.

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