NBA Player Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (1/31)

Jan 31, 2023 - 4:21 PM

Welcome to a solid five-game NBA slate, where I’ll provide my favorite props for your liking. It’s been a successful season so far, and I’d love to keep it going. Here are my favorite plays for today. Remember to shop around for the best odds.

This Week: 2-4
This Month: 20-13

And check out our other top picks for Tuesday:

• NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Best Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Player Prop Bet Rankings Picks & Predictions
• College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NHL Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Today’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 37.5 Pts + Ast (-110 @ DraftKings)

It’s never fun betting the under on props for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but sometimes it’s the best play. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet actually identifies this as one of the best plays on the slate with a +40 percent expected value. 

This prop is aggressively inflated due to Giannis’ recent play. Of course, he is capable of posting a 50 or 41-point game, as he did in each of his last two matchups, but that is simply not sustainable. That number will come down to his seasonal average of 31.7, and I am not too worried about him going bananas in the assist category.  

Going up against Charlotte is another reason this prop is so high. They play sup-par defense and offer a pace-up spot, but this team has held Giannis in check before. It’s no fun to root against Giannis going nuclear, but it’s the right play here, especially in a potential blowout.

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Ayo Dosunmu OVER 2.5 assists (+124 @ FanDuel)

For my value play of the day, I’m going with the former Illinois guard to reach at least three assists tonight against the Clippers.

His assist numbers haven’t been too impressive, but the prop still shouldn’t be this low. He’s averaged 2.6 assists a game this season. In home matchups, that number has been higher. The second-year guard is due for some positive regression, and I expect to see it tonight against Los Angeles.   

Someone has to step up for the healthy Bulls. Zach LaVine is a scorer, and I’m banking on Ayo Dosunmu to facilitate to LaVine and DeRozan enough to eclipse his assist total.

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Jericho Sims UNDER 6.5 points (-138 @ FanDuel)

Finally, I’m fading Jericho Sims as the Knicks take on the Lakers  

Anthony Davis has only played in two games since mid-December but is probable for tonight, giving me a bit more confidence in this prop. Sims has been scoring at a higher clip in the last two weeks, averaging 5.7 points per game, but on the season, that number falls short of four. He is not a scorer. 

Despite a pace-up spot for the Knicks in this position, the opportunity simply isn’t there. Sims usage rate has only reached double-digits once in his last six games played, and he has attempted three or fewer shots in four of his last six games. Even though the books set this line at -138, I still see some good value here because I cannot see him reaching seven points tonight.

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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