NBA Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (3/14)

Mar 14, 2023 - 9:47 PM

Tuesday’s NBA slate is packed with eight games with the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns as the marquee matchup. Here are my three favorite player prop bets for tonight’s action.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

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7:30 PM EST: Denver Nuggets (+1) vs Toronto Raptors (O/U: 227)

My first player prop of the night can be found in the Nuggets and Raptors game. Toronto has been a top scoring defense so far this season, allowing just 112.3 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA. Furthermore, relative to the rest of the league, the Raptors defend centers well as they allow an average of 21.3 points to the position, which is 8th in the NBA. While Nikola Jokic has been the frontrunner for MVP a majority of the season, I do not believe he will have an easy scoring night tonight. Additionally, Jokic failed to reach 25 points in 7 of his last 10 games. Jokic also only managed 17 points in his sole matchup against this Raptors team earlier this month. Not to say Jokic can’t dominate this game in other facets, but I will be betting the under on his point total.

Bet: Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 Points (-103, BetRivers)

8:00 PM EST: Orlando Magic (-5) vs San Antonio Spurs (O/U: 232.5)

My second player prop of the night highlights the Magic and Spurs matchup, which holds the second highest total of the day. The Spurs have been a bottom-of-the-barrel team all season long and three point defense has been no exception. San Antonio ranks dead last in opponent three point percentage allowing a staggering 39.3% success rate (a whole 1.5% higher than the next worst team). This gives value to the three point shooters of the Magic, specifically Gary Harris. Harris averages 43% from three on 4.5 attempts per game this season. Additionally, in the month of March has increased his three point opportunities to an average of 6.5 per game. Harris’ three pointers made is currently sitting at 1.5 and juiced to -190 at most sportsbooks. However, given the Spurs poor three point defense and Harris’ increased shot attempts, I believe there is value on the alternate line of over 2.5 at +162.

Bet: Gary Harris Over 2.5 Threes (+162, FanDuel)

10:00 PM EST: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) vs Phoenix Suns (O/U: 231)

The final player prop I like tonight is in the featured matchup between the Bucks and Suns. As two title contenders clash, I expect Deandre Ayton to prove his worth. In the last two games, Ayton has done well scoring-wise posting a 27 and 22 point performance. While Milwaukee remains to be a top team among defensive efficiency metrics, they rank just 15th in points allowed to the center position. Furthermore, Ayton has managed to score 19 or more points in seven of his last ten home games. I will be backing Ayton over 18.5 points in tonight’s game.

Bet: Deandre Ayton Over 18.5 Points (-106, Caesars)

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