March Madness Team Betting Preview: Baylor Bears

Mar 15, 2021 - 1:40 AM

Betting Preview: Baylor Bears

• Record: 22-2 overall, 13-2 Big 12 Conference
• ATS: 15-9
• O/U: 15-9
• Points Scored/Game: 84.4 (3rd overall)
• Points Allowed/Game: 66.4 (59th overall)
• Outright Odds: +250 (BettingPros Consensus)

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Team Strengths

Baylor is a deep team with an elite offense. The Bears boast the best shooting from beyond-the-arc at a 41.9% clip from deep. Jared Butler’s talent is remarkable, and he is capable of taking over any game. The Bears have been challenged this season, and that makes them well equipped for a tournament run. They know how to handle themselves in close matchups, are aggressive on the offensive boards, and offer waves of depth to tire any team.   

The Bears showed earlier this season their ability to handle Illinois, so they have a token non-conference win that will further aid them in the tourney. This team has a lot of experience together and has gone through a lot over the past two years. Scott Drew has proved himself an elite coach, and Baylor cutting down the nets in early April is very much within the realm of possibilities. 

Team Weaknesses

Baylor’s biggest weakness is their lack of interior scoring. While the Bears are money from beyond the arc, their lack of size means less than half of their points come from inside-the-arc, and when they are off, they are at risk of losing. Their two losses this year have come when they shot 23.1% and 21.4% from 3pt, respectively.   

This means that Baylor will need to diversify the ways they score because if they fall behind due to being cold from three, it will be more difficult to claw their way back. Look out for potential upsets based on how good a team’s defense is from beyond-the-arc.

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Why They’ll Win it All

This team has been through it all and is a similar team to last year’s one. They faced off against a gauntlet of talent in the Big 12 and only lost two games. Scott Drew is one of the best coaches in the country and had ample experience in the tourney. Baylor’s depth can go against any squad and be important for close games late, with the Bears representing arguably the best backcourt in the nation. This is a championship-caliber team ranked top-5 all season and is one of the most capable teams to take down the NCAAB crown. 

Why They Won’t Win it All

The Bears’ size and dependency on the three-ball could easily be the downfall of this team. Facing a team with size and strength that can challenge them on the boards while not turning the ball over can easily trouble the Bears regardless of how they are shooting.  

Their final batch of games seems like their worse ones as they went 4-2, scraping by WVU in OT and letting Kansas State keep it close all game. They don’t exactly have momentum on their side heading into the tournament, and if they are forced to get creative with scoring, they may have trouble getting the ball in the hoop. This team is resilient, but they are susceptible to a hiccup or two in the tournament. 

Baylor Bears March Madness Prediction

Baylor is a solid team with legitimate championship aspirations. It is tough not to have them reach the Final Four, but not all one seeds can make the Final Four, right?

Their path to the championship seems bumpy, and they didn’t get the easiest draw. With that being said, this is the second-best team in the bracket, and I project Baylor to make it to the Final Four. 

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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