ACC Conference Tournament College Basketball Betting Preview (2022)

Mar 7, 2022 - 4:49 AM

To say this was a down year for the ACC would be an understatement. After sending seven teams to the tournament just a year ago, they are only guaranteed two right now, and it would take a miracle to even send six. Duke is the only genuine title contender in the group, and despite the talent, there is plenty of doubt surrounding this team. North Carolina solidified their bid with a road win at Cameron Indoor to spoil Coach K’s moment, but I still can’t see them as anything higher than a 10-seed.

Wake Forest should be safe, as long as they avoid an early exit in the ACC tournament. Everyone else…who knows. Miami and Notre Dame sit directly on the bubble, with Virginia Tech and Virginia hoping to make waves in the tournament to steal themselves a spot in the bracket. But seriously, how great was it for UNC to take down Duke in spectacular fashion to round out the regular season.

The ACC Tournament will take place over five days, from Tuesday, March 8-Saturday, March 12. So, let’s get to the preview, highlighting the favorite, best value, and darkhorse to win it all. Make sure to keep an eye out for more conference tournament previews along with extensive March Madness coverage once the bracket is revealed. 

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ACC Conference Tournament

Dates: March 8-12
Venue: Barclays Center — Brooklyn, NY
Top Seed: Duke
Previous Winners:

• 2021 — Georgia Tech
• 2020 — N/A
• 2019 — Duke
• 2018 — Virginia
• 2017 — Duke
• 2016 — North Carolina

Favorite to Watch

Duke (-125  at BetRivers)

You know, if there’s a minus next to any team’s name for a conference tourney, you should pay attention. This tournament is Duke’s to lose. They are far and away the best team in the conference, ranking first in offensive and defensive efficiency. In addition, Paolo Banchero is an elite athlete who’s been more than elite for the Blue Devils this season.  

With that being said, what a weird team Duke has been all year. When they are firing on all cylinders, Duke might be the best team in the nation. The coaching-talent combo is ridiculous, and it’s honestly shocking they hold a 26-5 record. But that’s just the thing; we have yet to see them at their best. And if they haven’t reached it now, will they at all this season? The young talent gives me hesitation, as clearly nerves were riding high in the regular-season finale against North Carolina.

Playing in Coach K’s last home game ever might be more nerve-racking than any tourney game, but their inconsistencies are glaring, and it’s unclear if they will show up in Brooklyn. So, generally, I would avoid betting on this tournament. If you are desperate for some ACC action, though, Duke is the team to bet. They should have a chip on their shoulder for being embarrassed last time out, and even when they aren’t at their best, they are still leagues ahead of the rest of the field.   

Best Value

Virginia Tech (+1100 at DraftKings)

Considering the Hokies finished as a 7-seed, I expected to put VA Tech as my longshot, but considering their odds, it seems like the sportsbook already knows their value. Tech has been a team-high in analytics all year, coming in at 29th in KenPom. Their 3pt shooting is top tier, and they won nine of their last eleven games to round out the season. 

Wofford transfer Storm Murphy has not played up to his potential and still has room to grow. However, Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts make up a legitimate frontcourt that’s one of the best in the conference. Their defense is above average, and their all-around play can make them a serious ACC title contender.

Best Longshot Play

Miami  (+1100 at DraftKings)

The Hurricanes finished fourth in the conference, earning them the double-bye in the tournament, the first reason I like their value. Secondly, Miami has already beaten Wake Forest and Duke on the road this year, which would be their hypothetical path to a championship game. 

Despite completely falling apart against Virginia Tech, Miami finished the regular season with three wins. Kameron McGusty is a dynamic forward who helps lead this 16th ranked KenPom offense. Miami takes care of the ball, scores from every area on the floor, and has shown they can get hot at any time, tallying a nine-game win streak earlier this season. 

The thing is, Jima Larranaga’s squad doesn’t exactly play defense and can allow any team to keep up with them any given night. Florida State and Virginia seemed to have their number this year, but they are a solid value if they can avoid either of those two squads.  

If you are looking for another longshot, go for Syracuse (+5000 on DraftKings). The Orange are the epitome of a tournament team, always going on surprising runs.    

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