Upset Alert: Teams to Fade from West Region (2022 March Madness)

Mar 15, 2022 - 11:06 AM

March Madness is finally upon us as the NCAA Tournament is set to get underway Thursday. If you are reading this, you are probably in an office, family, or betting pool for this year’s festivities and are looking for a few teams to set you apart.

Below, I walk through two teams to fade in the West region to help you gain an edge in your pool.

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Duke (2 seed)

No man has single-handedly taken away from his team’s progression this season as Mike Krzyzewski has done for the Duke Blue Devils with his farewell tour antics. We saw firsthand the embarrassing performance Duke gave in their final home game this season against the very-average North Carolina Tar Heels, a performance which was overshadowed by Coach K scolding his own student section for cheering for him.

This is not the same Duke we have seen over the past few decades. Duke has not made It out of the first weekend in four of the last nine seasons and could be a good fade option again this year.

Over their last 10 games, Duke is just 3-7 against the spread and continues to be overvalued by the public. It is important to distinguish your bracket against others when playing in a pool as you gain no advantage of having a similar pick as everyone else, and most people will have Duke going far.

I do not think Duke will survive the first weekend as I think they lose to either Davidson or Michigan State in the second round. Duke is just 9-7 against the spread this season when playing away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.

With the entire circus act that has surrounded Coach K’s final run and created a distraction for this team, I think that Duke will be on upset watch early in this tournament

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Texas Tech (3 seed)

Another fade-worthy team in the West region is the Texas Tech Red Raiders. There is a myriad of factors as to why Texas Tech could be bounced in the opening weekend, but perhaps none are as important as their lack of experience.

With Chris Beard now coaching the Texas Longhorns, first-year head coach Mark Adams has taken the reigns for the Red Raiders. While Adams was named Big 12 coach of the year, that award was more so an indictment of his ability to control the chaos of this transition season for this team.

The fact of the matter is that Texas Tech has beaten up on the poor bottom half of the Big 12 and will be too inexperienced for this tournament as they only return one starter from last season. Their inexperience has resulted in inconsistent offensive play all season for Texas Tech as they rank just 65th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Texas Tech’s record is also heavily boosted by their play at home, an advantage they will not have in this tournament. The Red Raiders have failed to meet expectations away from United Supermarkets Arena as they are just 7-9 against the spread in away/neutral site games this season.

Even if they get past the red-hot Montana State in round one, they will meet a difficult opponent in round two regardless of who it is between Alabama, Rutgers, or Notre Dame.

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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