New Mexico State vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Pick & Predictions for 2022 NCAA Tournament

Mar 18, 2022 - 1:34 PM

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New Mexico State Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Game Info

New Mexico State Aggies (27-6, 13-4 WAC) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (26-8, 13-5 SEC)

• Date: Saturday, Mar. 19, 2022
• Start Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Location: KeyBank Center — Buffalo, NY
• Coverage: TNT
• Last Meeting: November 21, 1998 — Arkansas defeated New Mexico State 66-60 in Fayetteville.

New Mexico State vs. Arkansas Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: NMST: (+220) | ARK: (-278)
• Point Spread: NMST: +6.5 (-110) | ARK: -6.5 (-110)
• Total: 139.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

• New Mexico State 2021-22 Betting Trends: 18-12 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
• Arkansas 2021-22 Betting Trends: 20-14 ATS; 21-13 to the Over
• New Mexico State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall
• New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog
• Arkansas is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall
• Arkansas is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 NCAA Tournament games
• Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games
• The over is 4-0 in New Mexico State’s last four NCAA Tournament games
• The over is 7-0 in Arkansas’ last seven games overall
• The under is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six NCAA Tournament games as favorites

Overview

Many predicted this pod in Buffalo, NY, to be dominated by upsets. And while New Mexico State held up its end of the bargain by knocking off Connecticut, Arkansas beat a Vermont team that had obliterated its opponents leading up to the tournament. Cinderella stories like New Mexico State often result in a player playing at a superhuman level and becoming a household name by the tournament’s end. After the opening round, that honor already goes to “Teddy Buckets” as the Aggies’ Teddy Allen went off for a tournament-high 37 points against the Huskies. However, Arkansas has a stud of its own in JD Notae, who has scored in double figures in 32 of 33 games this season. Allen and Notae going head-to-head is must-watch television.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

After a 20-3 start to the season, doubt started to creep in surrounding New Mexico State, as they finished the regular season 4-3. However, the Aggies resorted back to its dominance of the Western Athletic Conference in the postseason tournament and parlayed their automatic bid into an upset of UConn. Unlike many other conference champions from smaller schools, New Mexico State did not face much high-level competition in the non-conference portion of its schedule. The Aggies played three of their 13 non-conference games against teams outside of Division I and the only NCAA Tournament team they faced was Davidson, though they beat the Wildcats 75-64 on a neutral court. From a metrics perspective, New Mexico State’s strength is defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 30% (ranks 25th in Division I) on the season. However, turnovers continue to be an issue, as they rank outside the top 300 in turnover percentage, though they only committed 11 against UConn.

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview

Arkansas kicked it into high gear in mid-January, running off a string of 14 wins in 15 games, with its only loss coming by one point on the road at Alabama in that span. The Razorbacks allowed 40 combined points to Vermont’s two stars (Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu) in their opening-round game but did a masterful job of shutting down the rest of the Catamounts. Outside of Davis and Shungu, Vermont’s other players combined to shoot 11-for-31 from the field. Arkansas was dominant on the glass as well, out-rebounding Vermont 39-32, and committed just five turnovers for the game.

New Mexico State Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Pick and Prediction

Not taking anything away from New Mexico State’s upset of Connecticut, but it should not be understated how impressive Arkansas’ win over Vermont was. Though the Catamounts were a No. 13 seed, they were one of the country’s most efficient offensive teams (ranked third in effective field goal percentage) and had won each of its conference tournament games by at least 32 points. Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman is quickly becoming thought of as a solid NCAA Tournament coach, parlaying his success at Nevada into a high-profile SEC job. Arkansas does not shoot the three at a high-level (30.7% ranks 308th in the country), but they will look to play this game at a frenetic pace and get up and down for easy baskets.

Given that Vermont’s top two scorers accounted for 56.3% of its scoring against Arkansas, it is worrying that Teddy Allen can go off on them as well. However, Arkansas arguably beat a tougher opponent two days ago, and will a similar point spread in this matchup, we like them to pull away late for the cover.

Pick: Arkansas -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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