ACC Basketball Betting Preview: Conference play begins for UVA and company

Dec 3, 2022 - 3:36 PM

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Well the ACC fared a lot better than I did this week. That’s on me for underestimating the league. With only a couple exceptions, our weekends from here on out are all ACC tilts. After a couple of games on Friday night, we get three on Saturday and two on Sunday. Head over Draftkings Sportsbook and get the ACC season started today.

Saturday

Syracuse Orange @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame -4, O/U 130
Draftkings: Notre Dame -6.5, O/U 134.5

Against Michigan State on Wednesday night, the Fighting Irish went 11 for 26 from three. And that’s against a Spartan that doesn’t invite you to take threes. This Syracuse defense is bad. This Syracuse offense is bad. This whole Syracuse team is bad. Notre Dame will be happy to chuck from three all day long and I think they make a bunch of them. The Irish take this one going away.

Pick: Notre Dame -6.5

Florida State Seminoles @ Virginia Cavaliers
KP: Virginia -20, O/U 134
Draftkings: Virginia -19, O/U 131

When I first saw this spread, my immediate thought was take the points with Florida State since even at their best, Virginia doesn’t really cover spreads this high. Then I looked back at the 2019 team and saw that Virginia won by 19 points or more nine times in conference play. So, with a team this talented it’s not out of the question. That being said, I'm not a fan of laying that many points. If it happens it’ll be because Virginia puts the clamps on the Seminoles offense and the visitors score in the low fifties. If that happens, this total goes under. I could also see some regression by the Virginia offense who has scored at least 70 points in every game this season. In the ACC opener against a team as physical of Florida State, it’s probable the Hoos don’t run away with it.

Pick: Under 131

Boston College Eagles @ Duke Blue Devils
KP: Duke -15, O/U 131
Draftkings: Duke -17.5, O/U 129

We’re still in the process of feeling out Jon Scheyer and these new look Blue Devils. They’re much more inclined to play a more deliberate, defensive-minded style bringing a total like 129 into play. But they’re still scoring into the 70’s more often that not. I’m going to let it happen a few more time before I expect Duke games to be played in the 120s. This is still a program who will look to score 80 at home in a blowout and if it’s close it’s because Boston College was able to score with the Blue Devils. Give me the over.

Pick: Over 129

Sunday

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Virginia Tech Hokies
KP: Virginia Tech -1, O/U 141

Since this game is being played on Sunday, we’re going to go off the KenPom prediction. I’m not sure what public sentiment is going to be around this North Carolina squad when the lines are published, but I could see the Hokies being a 2 to 3 point favorite when this game opens. I like the Hokies in that case, but I’m going to the under. Until North Carolina proves to me they can play team offense, I’m going to take the total under against teams that force the game into the half court. VaTech is one of those teams.

Pick: Under 141

Miami Hurricanes @ Louisville Cardinals
KP: Louisville +7, O/U 137

Books are getting a lot sharper in recent years, but if this line opens anywhere near Miami -7, jump on it. Miami beat a really good Rutgers team on Wednesday and I don’t expect them to have any issues with Louisville. It’s another prove it game for Louisville and I’m laying double-digits and maybe more against the Cards for the foreseeable future.

Pick: Miami -7

Season Total: ATS (1-5-0), O/U (7-5-0), Total (8-10-0)