Top College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday, December 17th (2022)

Dec 17, 2022 - 12:36 PM

Once the calendar turns to January, high-profile non-conference matchups in college basketball are few and far between. Thus, college basketball fans should relish these few remaining Saturdays with high-quality matchups as we have on today’s slate. The early action is loaded with three mouth-watering games that tip off at 2:00 p.m. ET or earlier, with No. 14 Indiana vs. No. 8 Kansas, No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 15 Gonzaga, and No. 5 Houston vs. No. 2 Virginia. With two other ranked vs. ranked matchups on the day’s slate, in addition to the preseason No. 1 North Carolina taking on Ohio State, this is a day that rivals any in college basketball to this point.

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college basketball action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Houston vs. Virginia O/U

Houston is the country’s best scoring defense and is the only team allowing fewer than 50 ppg (49.4). Virginia does not rank too far behind at 12th with 57.9 ppg allowed. While we are looking for any reasons we can find to go contrarian with an Over pick in this matchup, we cannot bring ourselves to do it with Kelvin Sampson and Tony Bennett capable of dialing up a masterful defensive plan.

Virginia has not played in 11 days, and Houston’s defense is not one you want to be out of rhythm against. In addition, the Cavaliers may be without point guard Reece Beekman who is day-to-day with a hamstring injury. Beekman is one of four Cavaliers averaging in double figures and is the team’s leading 3-point shooter (min. two attempts).

The Under is 7-1 in Houston’s last eight games following a SU win, and has cashed in each of Virginia’s last four home games. This game will not be aesthetically pleasing to those who like offense.

Bet: Houston-Virginia Under 113.5 (-105 at DraftKings) 

Gonzaga vs. Alabama ML

Alabama gets a quasi-home game in Birmingham and is looking to cap an impressive seven-day stretch that already includes wins over Houston and Memphis. The Crimson Tide are one of four teams ranked in the top 17 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and should prove too much for a Gonzaga team that has averaged 67.8 ppg in three losses to teams ranked in the top 46 in defensive efficiency.

Outside of a one-point neutral site win where it needed a defensive stop on the final possession against Michigan State, Gonzaga has not done anything to inspire confidence it can win on the road against a team as explosive as Alabama. In addition, the Crimson Tide are the team on Gonzaga’s schedule best equipped to handle the Bulldogs’ frenetic pace, as they rank 17th in adjusted tempo.

Gonzaga is just 3-15-3 ATS in its last 21 games, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games. However, we expect the Birmingham crowd to lift Alabama to a victory (and possibly a cover) today.

Bet: Alabama ML (-125 at DraftKings)

Tennessee vs. Arizona ML

This is a fascinating matchup of the country’s best offense (Arizona) against Tennessee (defense). We agree with the oddsmakers that we project the offense to win out, especially because the Wildcats have a deadly inside-outside balance and have so many people that can go off on  a given night. Arizona’s height will be an issue for the Volunteers, and even though Tennessee is the country’s best team at defending the 3-point line (20.2%), Arizona hits theirs at nearly a 40% clip (39.3 ranks 23rd), and the respect you have to pay their big men in the post often draws double teams and open perimeter shooters. We do not like that the line has moved so much in Arizona’s favor (up to -3.5), but there is more than enough value on its moneyline odds.

Bet: Arizona ML (-165 at DraftKings)  

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