MBB hosts the tumbling LSU Tigers

Feb 1, 2023 - 6:30 PM

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A pair of first-year SEC head coaches will meet tonight in Columbia, with one looking to secure another victory over a projected NCAA Tournament appearance and the other searching for a way to rediscover early season magic.

Before the season, many fans would have thought the script was flipped, projecting Mizzou to fall off after a fairly easy start to the season and LSU to continue its path to an opportunity to play important postseason basketball. Heck, the SEC Preseason Poll even tabbed LSU two spots ahead of Mizzou, who slotted in at 10th.

However, that early prediction has not come to fruition for Mizzou, who falls just outside the Top 25 rankings heading into this matchup and are tabbed as the nation’s 51st-best team according to KenPom, while LSU counters with No. 128.

Despite the difference in rankings, however, the programs actually featured an eerily similar start.

The Missouri and LSU Tigers followed a similar trajectory throughout the non-conference portion of their schedules, picking apart Quad 3 and 4 teams before suffering their first losses to teams based out of kansas.

However, since the turn of the new year, the Bayou-based Tigers have fallen from a feared SEC dark horse candidate to the cellar of the Southeastern Conference standings.

Mizzou, meanwhile, continues to out-hustle opponents to victories, notching a win over then-No. 12 Iowa State over the weekend and also improving its SEC record to .500 with a victory over Ole Miss last week.

After picking up exactly zero victories in the month of January, there may be no team in the nation happier to see the calendar switch to February than LSU. The visiting Tigers will be motivated and hungry to pick up their ninth consecutive victory over Mizzou, including the fourth win in Columbia over the past seven seasons.

Game Info

When: Wednesday, Feb. 1

Where: Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Mo.

Time: 8:00 p.m. CST

TV: SEC Network

KenPom Win Probability: 84%

The Starters

Missouri:

PG: Nick Honor (Grad; 8.5 PPG)

SG: D’Moi Hodge (Grad; 14.6 PPG)

SF: Isiaih Mosley (SR; 9.8 PPG)

PF: Kobe Brown (SR; 16.0 PPG)

C: Noah Carter (SR; 9.8 PPG)

Key Depth: Guard Tre Gomillion (Grad; 5.3 PPG), Guard DeAndre Gholston (Grad; 10.2 PPG), Forward Aidan Shaw (FR; 3.3 PPG), Guard Sean East II (SR; 8.0 PPG)

LSU:

PG: Cam Hayes (JR; 7.6 PPG)

SG: Justice Williams (SO; 4.0 PPG)

SF: Adam Miller (12.1 PPG)

PF: KJ Williams (Fifth-Year; 17.2 PPG)

C: Derek Fountain (JR; 7.1 PPG)

Key Depth: Guard Justice Hill (SR; 6.9 PPG), Guard Trae Hannibal (SR; 6.7 PPG) and Forward Jalen Reed (FR; 3.0 PPG)

*These are projected starters based on previous games and prior game information

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Get To Know LSU

LSU looked to be formidable following a 12-1 start to the season, which included victories over Wake Forest and then-No. 9 Arkansas as well as a two-point loss to Kansas State, the nation’s No. 7 team at the moment.

The Tigers have yet to pick up a victory in 2023, however, losing its last seven conference games except one by double-digit points.

Under first-year SEC head coach Matt McMahon, LSU is looking to establish consistency and rediscover the magic that it had before the calendar flipped.

For the Tigers, that switch will need to start on the offensive end.

Fifth-year forward KJ Williams is the bright spot for this LSU team, averaging the third-most points in the SEC (17.2) and grabbing the seventh-most rebounds (7.4). His contributions are eerily similar to Mizzou’s own Kobe Brown, as Williams also knocks down 43.2% of his 3-point attempts.

Outside of Williams, only one other LSU Tiger averages more than eight points per game—Adam Miller. A transfer from Illinois, Miller is reestablishing himself after missing the entire 2021-22 season with an ACL injury.

Miller averages a team-high 33.2 minutes per game and shoots 35.2% from the field, which is amongst the team’s bottom-four players who have seen playing time in at least 10 games.

Atop the field goal percentage list is Derek Fountain, who shoots 55% and grabs 5.4 rebounds per game as another post presence. Joining Fountain in the starting lineup is Cam Hayes, a guard whose shot selection is geared toward the three-pointer, which he hits at a 35.6% rate.

Coming off the bench are guards Justice Hill and Trae Hannibal, who primarily serve as facilitators for LSU, combining for 110 assists this season.

As a team, LSU shoots 42% from the field, including a 33% tally from behind the arc. The Tigers’ early success generated through its defense, which limits the three-point shot and forces steals.

LSU holds opponents to a 31% mark from beyond the arc and forces 12.8 turnovers per game, but that mark is clouded with its own 12.9 turnovers per game. The Tigers are also the second-worst rebounding team in the SEC, averaging 3.3 more rebounds than Mizzou.

Without clear strengths in any offensive category as well as weaknesses in the talent-level beyond KJ Williams, LSU will hope to capitalize on an off-night from Mizzou to steal an upset victory.

3 Keys To The Game

1. Force contested LSU shot attempts

LSU is the third-worst shooting team in the SEC, so it’ll be important for Mizzou to capitalize on that weakness with an efficient halfcourt defense that focuses upon created contested shot attempts for the visiting Tigers.

Oftentimes, Mizzou has a tendency to leave open shot opportunities with its aggressive defense, but those should be limited as the game goes on to avoid another opponent to find the hot-hand.

If LSU does start knocking down shots, it’ll be even more important for Mizzou to limit the number of uncontested 3-point shot attempts because LSU does make a third of its 3-pointers. While that’s not an eye-popping number, the hometown Tigers have become accustomed to giving opponents more than they bargained for from behind the arc.

2. Limit turnovers

This feels like something Parker Gillam and I have harped on all season long in these previews, but it’s especially important when trying to avoid an upset bid from an inferior opponent.

LSU does force turnovers, albeit not at the rate that Mizzou does. Despite the difference that may exist, it’ll be vital for Mizzou to avoid giving the visitors additional opportunities and momentum.

KJ Williams, Derek Fountain and Justice Hill are the leading steal-getters for LSU, so they will be the primary names to watch as Mizzou attacks the offensive basket.

3. Hit the court running

Tempo is one of the biggest mismatches between these two programs.

Mizzou has the 25th-rated adjusted tempo, while LSU enters the contest at No. 273 in that regard. With such different playing styles, adjusting to that difference will be extremely important for whoever comes away victorious.

LSU prefers to hold offenses to long possessions, forcing them to operate offense in the half court, which has been a weakness of Mizzou’s at times throughout the season. If the visitors are able to control the tempo, then they will have a serious shot of upending the Tigers.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Game Prediction

My Prediction: Missouri 84 | LSU 68

KenPom Prediction: Missouri 81 | LSU 71

Home court advantage is a real thing, especially for the Missouri Tigers.

Mizzou has only one home defeat on the season, and I believe that’ll stay the case against an LSU team who continues to reel after its hot start.

The hometown Tigers feature a deep lineup, capable of matching up with any team in the country. LSU, however, does not and heavily relies upon its top scorers to spark its offense.

This matchup leans heavily in favor of Mizzou, and I believe this’ll be the effort that fans hoped to see against Ole Miss. KJ Williams will be a menace all over the court, but Mizzou’s firepower and defense will lift the Tigers to victory at home.