College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2/4)

Feb 4, 2023 - 12:19 PM

With so much recent conference realignment in college sports, many of the best longtime rivalries have fallen by the wayside. However, those that love the “old school” college rivalries will want to tune into college basketball today, as Duke-UNC, Purdue-Indiana, and Virginia-Virginia Tech highlight some of the day’s most intense matchups.

Currently, we are on a 12-3 run with our picks, with five straight profitable days under our belts. We look to make it six straight with another trio of wagers.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college basketball action.

YTD (as of 1/21): 17-13

And check out our other top picks for all of Saturday’s betting action:

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Best College Basketball Bets for Saturday

TCU vs. Oklahoma State ML

Even if TCU were at full strength, we would have given the Cowboys a long look at winning this game on their home floor. But with the Horned Frogs playing without the Big 12’s third-leading scorer, Mike Miles Jr. (18.1 points per game), TCU should have difficulty scoring against one of the nation’s best defensive teams.

Oklahoma State is connected with how it guards the perimeter and protects the rim. It is the Big 12’s best team in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense, and 2-point percentage defense (43.6%). In addition, the Cowboys lead the Big 12 in blocks per game (5.5), rebounds (37.2), and points per game allowed (63.0).

Want another idea of how good Oklahoma State is defensively? No team has topped 60 points against them in Stillwater since their season opener. Unfortunately, TCU’s Miles is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Considering he ranks in the top 152 nationally in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage (per KenPom), the Horned Frogs will struggle to find others to step up on the road in his absence.

Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, and we expect another big win as favorites given its recent covering success.

Bet: Oklahoma State ML (-145 at DraftKings) 

Purdue vs. Indiana Spread

Per ESPN Stats & Info, ten AP top two teams have already lost this season, the most in a season in AP Poll history. Thus, it is only fitting that the Hoosiers add to that record with an upset victory against the Boilermakers.

Purdue has owned this rivalry with ten wins in the previous 11 meetings but lost by three points in Bloomington last year. That loss was despite Trayce Jackson-Davis scoring just four points in 11 minutes as he was saddled with foul trouble, with the Hoosiers shooting 14-of-24 from the free-throw line and a worse 3-point percentage than Purdue. The key to the Indiana victory was winning the turnover battle (12-to-3), and it will look to attack Purdue’s freshman backcourt of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. Smith has committed multiple turnovers in four of the last six games, and a raucous Assembly Hall will likely unravel him again.

Purdue has not covered the spread in any of its last seven Saturday games, and we expect Indiana to make it eight straight non-covers this afternoon.

Bet: Indiana PK (-110 at DraftKings)

Florida vs. Kentucky O/U

Florida head coach Todd Golden earned his most signature win in his first year, knocking off No. 2 Tennessee in the last game. The victory matched the Gators’ highest-ranked home victory in program history. Florida limited Tennessee to 28% shooting and improved to eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranking. Meanwhile, Kentucky held Florida to an average of 60 points in two wins last year, despite center Colin Castleton scoring 41 points.

Tennessee employed a peculiar defensive strategy against Castleton, doubling him in the post (which they rarely do), which freed up open shooters. Look for Kentucky to play Castleton straight up with center Oscar Tshiebwe and stay at home on Florida’s shooters, who rank 256th (32.4%) from 3-point range.

The Under is 13-3 in Florida’s previous 13 overall, and has cashed in 18 of Kentucky’s last 24 against teams with a winning SU record.

Bet: Florida-Kentucky Under 136 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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