College Basketball Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (2/8)

Feb 8, 2023 - 11:24 AM

The Utah State Aggies are in a prime position to muddle up the Mountain West Conference standings, as they bring an 8-3 league record into a home matchup with the first-place 9-2 San Diego State Aztecs. With Boise State and Nevada also at 8-3 in the league, a Utah State win would significantly improve all of their chances for a regular season title.

We preview that big game and more in today’s college basketball best bet column.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s college basketball action.

  • YTD (as of 1/21): 22-14

And check out our other best bets for today:

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Best College Basketball Bets for Wednesday

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Iowa State vs. West Virginia O/U

Trends suggest West Virginia plays lower-scoring games against opponents that are more familiar to them. The Over has cashed in 10 of the Mountaineers’ 13 non-conference games this season, but they have an O/U record of 5-5 in their Big 12 games. Meanwhile, Iowa State is the most profitable Big 12 team to the Under (8-14 O/U record), and we expect that to be the trend that plays out in this game.

Neither offense should be able to establish much of a rhythm in this game, as both Iowa State and West Virginia rank in the top 46 nationally in turnover percentage forced. Iowa State leads the nation in that category, forcing turnovers on 26.9% of opponents’ possessions. In addition, the Cyclones play disciplined defense without fouling, as they allow the 332nd-fewest free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

West Virginia will have to knock down perimeter shots to be successful, as Iowa State ranks first in Haslametrics’ near-proximity (NPAR) category. That is a massive concern for a Mountaineers offense that gets just 27.9% of its points (273rd-fewest) from beyond the arc.

The Under is 10-3 in the Cyclones’ last 13 road games, and we expect another low-scoring game in this Big 12 battle.

Bet: Iowa State-West Virginia Under 135.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Florida vs. Alabama Spread

Alabama has the second-best cover percentage (13-9-1 ATS, 59.1%) in the SEC and is an even better 8-2 ATS in ten SEC games. From a scheduling standpoint, the Crimson Tide has a massive edge in this game. Florida is ending what has easily been the most challenging part of its schedule, with this road game against Alabama following two road games against Kansas State and Kentucky, with a home game against Tennessee sandwiched in between. Thus, it would not be surprising if the Gators were out of gas for this game, especially against a Crimson Tide team that has won 11 of 12.

Alabama has won its last six home games by an average of 28 points, which is even more impressive considering that five were against conference opponents.

The Crimson Tide should smother the Gators defensively, as Alabama ranks second nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, 3-point percentage allowed (26.1%), and 2-point percentage allowed (42.5%). Meanwhile, Florida ranks 195th or worse in each category offensively.

The road team is 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings between these teams, but we are going against that trend tonight.

Bet: Alabama -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

San Diego State vs. Utah State ML

Utah State has been lights out at home this year, going 11-1, with its only loss in the non-conference by three points to Weber State. In addition, the Aggies have won their five league home games by an average of 9.8 points per game.

Teams tend to shoot better on their home court, which is a bad sign for the Aztecs, as Utah State has the nation’s best 3-point shooting percentage (40.8%). Steven Ashworth and Taylor Funk are a nightmare for teams to defend on the perimeter, as each has shot 40.9% or better on their combined 331 3-point attempts. San Diego State allows opponents to shoot 30.3% from deep in league play, but the Aggies just made 35% of their threes against the league’s second-best perimeter defense (New Mexico).

Utah State is 14-9 ATS and has covered seven of its 11 home games. The home team is also 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these teams, and the favorite has covered five of the last six overall. We expect the Mountain West regular season title race to get much more interesting after the Aggies win tonight.

Bet: Utah State ML (-120 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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