Men’s College Basketball: NCAA Tourney Bracketology 4.0 (2023)

Feb 28, 2023 - 3:49 PM

Welcome to my fourth bracketology article this season. March is a day away. If the tournament is anything like this last weekend of college hoops, we are in for a treat. From here out, I will provide more frequent updates as the bubble takes a firmer shape. There is still a lot of value in the current market and future odds, so I will be sure to address that later in this article.

Now, you may wonder what the point of bracketology is, so let me explain. Participating in this practice is a great way to identify better value for teams’ betting futures. You may be high on a team, but understanding their seeding and potential opponents is critical, and I’m here to give you the most accurate projections to determine just that.

Bracketology also gives you an early introduction to the potential Cinderellas of the field, allowing you to be a step ahead of everyone else, and saving you valuable research time once the bracket is released. 

NCAA Tournament Bracketology 4.0

Before I get started, let me give you the rundown. This is an exciting bracketology for me as I will provide matchups from here on out. If you’re anything like me, it’s always interesting to go through fake brackets to get a sense of where you’re at on a team.

Before conference-champion auto-bids start to roll in, I will provide my tournament “locks.” These are teams that have left no doubt that they are tournament-worthy, even though they may not have clinched a bid outright yet. However, I’ll take a conservative approach here because college basketball is like the Wild West sometimes, and any team’s season can turn on a dime.

Finally, I’m building this bracket based on today’s standings rather than projecting where it might be. But that’s enough rambling; let’s get to the bracket. 

Locks

• Houston (24-2)
• Alabama (22-4)
• Purdue (23-4)
• Kansas (21-5)
• UCLA (22-4)
• Tennessee (20-6)
• Saint Mary’s (23-5)
• Arizona (23-4)
• Texas (20-6)
• UConn (19-7)
• Baylor (20-6)
• Virginia (20-4)
• Marquette (21-6)
• Gonzaga (25-5)
• Kansas State (22-7)
• Indiana (20-9)
• San Diego State (23-5)
• Xavier (21-8)

With the tournament rapidly approaching, I am much more willing to open the floodgates and move more teams over to the lock territory. Gonzaga secured a solid conference win over Saint Mary’s, and Indiana showed what they’re made of with a win at Purdue. Kansas State currently sits as a three-seed and has put together a nice three-game winning streak, while Xavier is also safe.   

Anyways, let’s get to the seeding and potential tournament matchups. Each of the last seven champions has ranked in the top 10 from Jan. 1 up until the tournament began. The current top 10 teams in order from Jan. 1 to now: Alabama, Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s, Purdue, Baylor, San Diego State and Gonzaga. I have already discussed Texas A&M and Saint Mary’s. But who is the only other team on that list not getting the deserved respect? San Diego State.

The Aztecs have quietly put together an incredible season with only one home loss and every loss coming against a KenPom top-50 team. Now the Mountain West did remarkably badly in the tournament last year, so I have been a little hesitant to jump on this bandwagon, but their win at New Mexico this weekend sent me over the edge. Their defense may not be as elite as last year, but their offense is significantly better.

This team currently sits at +8000 on BetMGM, and I am all in on that number, considering they’re as low as +6000 at Caesars. Texas A&M is as low as +5500 on FanDuel, but +12500 on BetRivers as I type this. I would recommend doubling down on that bet.

Let’s get to the seeding

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The Seeding

1 Seeds

• Houston
• Alabama
• Kansas
• Purdue

2 Seeds

• UCLA
• Texas
• Baylor
• Arizona

3 Seeds

• Tennessee
• Kansas State
• Marquette
• UConn

4 Seeds

• Indiana
• Gonzaga
• Virginia
• Xavier

5 Seeds

• Creighton
• Saint Mary’s
• Iowa State
• Miami

6 Seeds

• San Diego State
• Maryland
• TCU
• Illinois

7 Seeds

• Northwestern
• Michigan State
• Providence
• Texas A&M

8 Seeds

• Iowa
• Kentucky
• Missouri
• Duke

9 Seeds

• Arkansas
• Pittsburgh
• Rutgers
• Nevada

10 Seeds

• North Carolina State
• Auburn
• Boise State
• Florida Atlantic

11 Seeds

• Memphis
• West Virginia
• Arizona State*
• Oklahoma State*
• Mississippi State*
• USC*

12 Seeds

• Oral Roberts (Summit)
• College of Charleston (Colonial)
• VCU(A10)
• Liberty (ASun)

13 Seeds

• Marshall (Sun Belt)
• Kent State (MAC)
• Drake (MVC)
• Utah Valley  (WAC)

14 Seeds

• Yale (Ivy)
• Furman (Southern)
• Eastern Washington (Big Sky) 
• Youngstown State (Horizon) 

15 Seeds

• UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
• Iona (MAAC)
• UNC-Asheville (Big South)
• Colgate (Patriot)

16 Seeds

• Vermont (AE)
• Morehead State (OVC)
• Norfolk State* (MEAC)
• Texas A&M Corpus Christi* (Southland)
• Grambling State* (SWAC)
• Stonehill* (Northeast)

*Play-in games

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First Four Out

• Wisconsin
• New Mexico
• Clemson
• North Carolina

Next Four Out

• Utah State
• Oregon
• Wake Forest
• Penn State

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Bracket

South (Louisville)

1 Houston
16 Grambling State/Stonehill

8 Duke
9 Missouri

5 Creighton
12 Liberty

4 Indiana
13 Marshall

6 TCU
11 Memphis

3 Tennessee
14 Youngstown State

7 Northwestern
10 Florida Atlantic 

2 Arizona
15 UC Santa Barbara 

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West (Las Vegas)

1 Purdue
16 Vermont

8 Kentucky
9 Nevada

5 Miami
12 Oral Roberts

4 Xavier
13 Utah Valley

6 San Diego State
11 Mississippi State/Oklahoma State

3  UConn
14 Yale

7 Texas A&M
10 North Carolina State

2 UCLA
15 Colgate

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Midwest (Kansas City)

1 Kansas
16 Morehead State

8 Arkansas
9 Rutgers

5 Iowa State
12 College of Charleston

4 Gonzaga
13 Drake

6 Maryland
11 West Virginia

3 Marquette
14 Furman

7 Providence
10 Auburn

2 Texas
15 UNC-Asheville 

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East (New York)

1 Alabama
16 Norfolk State/TAMCC

8 Iowa
9 Pittsburgh

5 Saint Mary’s
12 VCU

4 Virginia
13 Kent State

6 Illinois
11 Arizona State/Mississippi State

3 Kansas State
14 Eastern Washington

7 Michigan State
10 Boise State

2 Baylor
15 Iona

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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