Creighton vs. NC State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks

Mar 13, 2023 - 2:02 AM

March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, preview, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Creighton vs. NC State.

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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Creighton vs. NC State

Creighton vs. NC State Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview

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Creighton 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

Ranking ninth in the preseason AP poll, Creighton had serious championship hopes entering this season. With some new talent on the roster and Greg McDermott at the helm, it made sense that this team had such high hopes. Following neutral-court wins against Texas Tech and Arkansas, Creighton briefly fell apart, losing six straight games to some pretty mediocre teams. After that, the Blue Jays lost only four games the rest of the regular season, and now they appear to be ready for a tournament run.

Despite its seeding, Creighton ranks in the top 10 on some analytical sites and in the top 20 on KenPom. McDermott has stepped this team up defensively, surrendering very few offensive rebounds while doing an elite job at avoiding fouls. Creighton’s outside-in defense allows a fair amount of interior looks but nothing near proximity. Creighton allows the highest number of midrange looks to opponents in the nation, so it makes sense that teams such as Marquette have beaten them. Going up against a team that prefers to get to the hoop and draw contact (TCU, Texas A&M) might cause problems for these Blue Jays, as a lot of their losses have come when their defensive free throw rate is at its highest.

What I haven’t even mentioned is how Creighton can absolutely pop off offensively. Ryan Nembhard and Baylor Scheirerman are a dynamic duo, with Nembhard a solid facilitator to go along with Trey Alexander’s precision shooting. While the Blue Jays lack depth, they haven’t been bitten too much by that this season. Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the most efficient players in the country with a top-10 effective field goal rate, and some of Creighton’s losses came when he was out. If this team plays at its peak, expect these Blue Jays to soar.

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NC State 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

There might not be a lower-seeded team with a higher ceiling than North Carolina State in this tournament. I could highlight how well NC State takes care of the ball, its effectiveness at defending the perimeter, or how well it has played in neutral-court games this season. But there is one primary reason I believe in the Wolfpack this March, and that reason is Terquavion Smith.

The NC State guard has willed this team to victory in some games, doing exactly that with a 30-point outing against Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. His ability to score and dish to other shooters like Casey Morsell is simply a privilege to watch. North Carolina State is capable of a 2017 South Carolina-like run as a lower at-large seed.

Considering that the Wolfpack gets a shot off nearly every offensive possession, I trust this team for the high variability that goes with this tournament. There is a reason, however, that NC State is seeded the way it is, with 10 losses entering the tournament. The Wolfpack can get into foul trouble and does not have the best interior defense. If Smith is off, this team will be in trouble. Its only neutral-court defeat was to Kansas by six points in a game where the Jayhawks shot 47 percent from beyond the arc. As Smith goes, NC State goes. I would not be surprised if NC State busted some brackets.

Creighton vs. NC State 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions

If we’re talking hot vs. not – this is a matchup for you. Since January 1st, Creighton ranks 12th on Bart Torvik, while N.C. State ranks 48th. Creighton has a solid, dynamic offense that will be difficult for the 85th-ranked Wolfpack defense to stop. Clemson handled NC State despite my expectation of Terquavion Smith being able to take over.

If NC State is off, Creighton handles defensive rebounds at a very high clip. The Wolfpack’s recent inconsistencies are a bit concerning, and the Blue Jays’ 15th-ranked defensive efficiency has been understated all season. They don’t allow much from beyond the arc, and when they allow anything inside, it’s nothing close. North Carolina State will have to manufacture points which we have seen them struggle to do. However, I am feeling Smith is able to step up in the biggest moments against an unfamiliar opponent, especially considering how turnover-avoidant the Wolfpack is and that Creighton doesn’t force many turnovers. I expect Creighton to take down this game, but give me the over in this matchup.

Creighton vs. NC State 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks

Pick: Over 147.5 (-110)

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