San Diego State vs. Charleston: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks

Mar 13, 2023 - 1:46 AM

March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, preview, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: San Diego State vs. Charleston.

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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: San Diego State vs. Charleston

San Diego State vs. Charleston Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview

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San Diego State 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

After Mountain West teams fell apart in March last year, San Diego State enters this year’s tournament as the conference’s shining star with the best hopes of cutting down the nets in Houston.

Last year, this was an extremely defensive-focused team, ranking 167th in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency. This year, the Aztecs have evened out a bit more, ranking in the top 50 in offensive efficiency and top 15 defensively. Matt Bradley forces turnovers, with Lamont Butler ranking as one of the most effective pick-pocketer in the league. Offensively, Adam Seiko is one of the sharpest shooters in all of college basketball, with Micah Parrish shooting effectively beyond the arc as well. The Aztecs have a strong all-around defense without any glaring holes, limiting opponents to sub-30 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Brian Dutcher and Co. have competed with some top teams on neutral courts, which gives me confidence in their ability to show out in the tournament. San Diego State doesn’t exactly have any glaring positives either. This is a quiet, consistent team that I expect to win the games they’re supposed to win and lose the games they’re supposed to lose. San Diego State ranks higher in the metrics than in the seeding.

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Charleston 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

Charleston put itself on the national radar after starting the year 21-1, ranking as high as 18th in the AP Poll. Following losses to Hofstra and Drexel, the Cougars won out, entering the NCAA Tournament with a 31-3 record and on a 10-game winning streak. Those wins came on the back of a top 100-ranked offense and defense with a fast pace. Ryan Larson is an effective guard, and Ante Brzovic has really stepped up in the front court of late, an effective rebounder and interior defender.

Despite all those wins, Charleston still lacks high analytical numbers due to their bottom 300 ranked strength of schedule. Even after those two losses, since February 4th, Charleston ranks outside the top 50 on Bart Torvick. The best team they played all year was UNC, but they do deserve credit as they stuck with the Tar Heels for 35 minutes. The Cougars’ top-75-ranked defense defends the perimeter at an elite clip. Still, their smaller height is susceptible to interior looks as opponents score over 59 percent of their points from inside the arc, ranked top 10 in the country. Facing a team that prefers the perimeter look and is not too physical would be great for Charleston, and I’m guessing they will be a popular upset pick with all 31 wins next to their name.

San Diego State vs. Charleston 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions

San Diego State is an under-seeded 5-seed. They won the Mountain West regular season and conference tournament. They’ve been one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Their suffocating defense slows teams to a screeching halt, and they’re very good and preventing teams from making three-pointers, allowing opponents do they’re shooting under 30%.

Charleston won the CAA regular season and conference tournament with a nation-leading 31 wins. They’ll be a really sexy upset pick due to their record and how they ran through the CAA. Taking a look at their resume, however, there is reason to be skeptical. They had just one win over a tournament team, 13-seeded Kent State, finishing just 2-2 against top 100 KenPom teams, with both wins being by just one possession.

This is a nightmare matchup for Charleston as they are used to playing one of the fastest tempos in the country and are heavily reliant on the three-point shot, making up 37.2% of their scoring. The Aztecs can slow Charleston down enough to keep this low scoring. San Diego State will be fairly dangerous in this tournament and will start off by avoiding the dreaded 5-12 upset.