2023 NCAA Tournament: Which No. 2 Seed Will Lose First?

Mar 15, 2023 - 8:29 PM

Each of the No. 2 seeds in the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket enters the Big Dance with momentum. Texas, Arizona, and Marquette each won their respective conference tournaments, while UCLA finished as the runner-up to Arizona in the PAC-12 title game.

While there is precedent for a team to use a conference tournament run as a springboard to a national title, it hasn’t happened often. It did occur recently at least, with last year’s national champion Kansas cutting down the Big 12 and national title nets. Before that, Villanova completed the sweep in 2018, as did Louisville in 2013, then UConn in 2011, and Duke in 2010.

We’ve also seen No. 2 seeds get tripped up plenty of times well before the second weekend. And that’s what we’re going to look at in this piece. Here’s an overview of each No. 2 seed and my prediction for which one gets picked off first.

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Which No. 2 Seed Will Lose First?

Texas Longhorns

It’s been an odd year for Texas that started with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard. The Longhorns looked pretty wobbly entering the regular season, going 4-4 down the stretch. But they figured things out in Kansas City, dispatching Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas in a rather impressive fashion.

Texas has a lot of what you’re looking for in a potential Final Four team. They’re a deep, experienced team with five seniors playing significant minutes. They play very good defense and are sound offensively. And they have an impressive resume.

But the Longhorns have concerns too. They don’t shoot the three all that well, are vulnerable on the glass, can get into foul trouble, and have an inexperienced coach in interim Rodney Terry.

These Longhorns also don’t have history on their side. Texas hasn’t advanced to the second weekend since 2008.

Evaluating Texas’ path

Texas’ path to the second weekend isn’t all that easy. Assuming they get past Colgate, Texas could face a tough matchup against two entirely different teams, either in-state rival Texas A&M, or Penn State. The Aggies are capable of exploiting Texas’ greatest weaknesses defensively (fouling and rebounding), while the Nittany Lions are a phenomenal shooting team that could simply get hot at the right time.

From there, Texas’ path actually might be more manageable. The Longhorns are paired with the weakest 3-seed in Xavier and could get a Big 12 rematch with Iowa State, a team they handled easily at home recently. Pittsburgh also isn’t much of a formidable Cinderella.

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is an impressive, flashy team. The Wildcats rank third in effective field goal percentage, can score from all areas of the floor, and love to play fast. Arizona is also an elite interior defensive team that limits second chances and free throw opportunities. Azoulas Tubelis is one of the best big men in the country and Oumar Bello is a sizable threat in the middle.

The problem is I just can’t trust Arizona’s guard play. The starting backcourt of Courtney Ramey and Kerr Kriisa is the definition of a boom-or-bust tandem. When both have their heads on straight, Arizona is practically unbeatable. But when they play teams that pressure the ball and create turnovers, they’re capable of sinking Arizona’s ship fast.

Evaluating Arizona’s path

In any other grouping, Arizona would be a team I’d be strongly considering for an early exit. The problem is, neither second-round matchup is all that concerning. Missouri and Utah State are lesser versions of Arizona. Both can light it up offensively. However, the Tigers are a miserable defensive team that likely can’t generate enough turnovers to win. Utah State is more sound defensively, but they hardly generate the turnovers that can get Arizona into serious trouble.

Baylor has the guard play and coaching pedigree to give the Wildcats a scare. They also defend the perimeter well. But Baylor’s interior defense is miserable, and Tubelis and Bello would have a field day. Six-seed Creighton would be a challenge for the Cats, but the Bluejays are also tough to trust and rarely force turnovers.

UCLA Bruins

Full disclosure, I placed a future on UCLA to win the national title a few weeks ago. But a tournament run for the Bruins will be tougher without third-leading scorer and top defender Jaylen Clark, who was lost for the season.

That being said, UCLA is still a really strong team. The Bruins are exceptional defensively, have two dynamic leaders with Final Four experience in Jaime Jacquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell, and have an elite head coach in Mick Cronin. That should be enough to get them past UNC Asheville, then either Northwestern or Boise State.

However, UCLA will likely need freshman big man Adem Bona to return from a shoulder injury suffered in the PAC-12 semifinal if they’re to stage a big run. The Bruins missed Bona’s presence dearly in the final, and their frontcourt depth was exposed badly when the next men up got into foul trouble.

UCLA also isn’t a dynamic team offensively. Campbell is a pick-and-roll specialist, while Jacquez thrives in the mid-range game. The Bruins, however, have just one player shooting better than 35% from 3-point range.

Evaluating UCLA’s path

As I mentioned, UCLA should have a solid road to the Sweet 16. UNC Asheville has a legitimate big man in Drew Pember, but they don’t have enough to pull a colossal upset. From there, UCLA would probably prefer to play against a Northwestern team they can grind down defensively. Boise State isn’t an offensive juggernaut either.

After that, UCLA could be in trouble. A Sweet 16 showdown with Gonzaga will be a pace clash that UCLA could struggle to win without Clark and Bona. TCU is a more manageable opponent but also loves to run the floor in transition.

Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette went from being picked ninth in the Big East to sweeping both the regular season and conference titles en route to a spot on the two line. Shaka Smart’s bunch has rallied around the underdog label all year long, but now the expectations are higher than ever.

The Golden Eagles play a style of offense that’s pretty sustainable. Marquette ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and fourth in 2-point percentage. The Golden Eagles don’t believe in midrange shots, taking mostly everything at the rim or beyond the arc.

Marquette has the Big East Player of the Year in Tyler Kolek, but Kam Jones, Oso Ighodaro, Oliver-Maxence Prosper, David Joplin, and Stevie Mitchell are all capable contributors. Kolek and Ighodaro run the show in the pick-and-roll game, but Marquette has a versatile lineup that can make shots from anywhere.

Defense has been Marquette’s biggest question all season but the Golden Eagles have shown significant improvement in that department. Marquette ranks 36th in defensive efficiency during its last 10 games. When they had to get stops against UConn in the Big East semifinals, they did. Then, the Golden Eagles swarmed Xavier in the Big East final, making the Musketeers completely uncomfortable all night.

Defensively, Marquette’s greatest strength is its ability to generate turnovers. Smart prioritizes deflections, and that’s translated to the Golden Eagles ranking 17th in that metric. However, Marquette can get exposed by bigger teams on the defensive glass, and they struggle to close out the perimeter at times.

Evaluating Marquette’s path

Marquette’s been placed in the East Region which seems to be the consensus chaos region. The Golden Eagles also drew a tough matchup with a Vermont team that can match their offensive firepower, takes care of the ball, and plays at a sluggish pace. That being said, the Catamounts don’t play good defense and lack the size to exploit Marquette on the offensive glass.

In the second round, a matchup with Michigan State or USC awaits. The Spartans have the coaching advantage with Tom Izzo. They are an elite 3-point shooting team and take good care of the basketball. However, Michigan State isn’t great in rim defense and lacks much rebounding prowess or size. USC’s greatest strength is its interior defense, but USC is susceptible from deep, turns the ball over, and isn’t great on the glass.

The Verdict

Identifying the first two-seed to lose in this tournament is a tricky task. While I don’t buy Arizona as a Final Four team, I don’t see anyone in their path that stops them from advancing to the second weekend. The same goes for UCLA. The injuries could become a greater concern in the second weekend, but they don’t face a true threat until the Sweet 16.

That leaves us with Marquette and Texas, which happen to be Shaka Smart’s last two teams. I could see both teams going down in the second round, but it depends on who they match up with. I like Penn State to beat Texas A&M, which is a far better matchup for Texas. Meanwhile, I think Michigan State takes down USC, which would make me worried if I’m a Marquette fan.

I’ll go with the consensus and say Marquette has the best chance of being the first two-seed eliminated. But don’t be surprised if Texas makes an early exit too.

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