USC vs. Michigan State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 17, 2023 - 10:12 AM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: USC vs. Michigan State

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USC Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Boogie Ellis	17.9	4.0	3.0	21.9	20.9	24.9	2.5	3.6
Drew Peterson	13.5	6.7	4.2	20.2	17.7	24.4	1.4	2.3
Tre White	8.3	5.2	1.0	13.5	9.3	14.5	0.4	1.2
Kobe Johnson	9.7	5.9	2.7	15.6	12.4	18.4	0.9	2.2
Reese Dixon-Waters	9.6	3.5	1.1	13.1	10.7	14.2	0.8	1.9
Joshua Morgan	6.5	5.6	0.5	12.0	6.9	12.5	0.0	1.3
Vincent Iwuchukwu	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Malik Thomas	1.1	0.5	0.1	1.6	1.2	1.8	0.1	0.2
Kijani Wright	1.1	1.1	0.2	2.2	1.3	2.4	0.0	0.2
Harrison Hornery	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0
Oziyah Sellers	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0
Iaroslav Niagu	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Zach Brooker	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Michigan State Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Tyson Walker	15.3	3.1	3.1	18.5	18.4	21.6	1.9	1.4
Joey Hauser	14.1	8.2	2.0	22.3	16.1	24.3	2.3	2.2
A.J. Hoggard	12.2	4.4	6.2	16.6	18.4	22.8	0.7	3.5
Jaden Akins	10.0	4.8	1.3	14.8	11.3	16.1	1.8	0.8
Malik Hall	8.7	4.7	1.2	13.4	9.9	14.6	0.8	1.8
Mady Sissoko	4.9	7.1	0.6	12.0	5.5	12.6	0.0	1.4
Pierre Brooks	0.7	0.4	0.1	1.1	0.8	1.2	0.2	0.0
Jaxon Kohler	2.4	2.7	0.3	5.1	2.6	5.4	0.0	0.0
Tre Holloman	1.3	1.0	0.9	2.3	2.2	3.2	0.1	0.2
Carson Cooper	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jason Whitens	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Davis Smith	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Steven Izzo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Nick Sanders	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

USC vs. Michigan State Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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