Saint Mary’s vs. VCU: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 17, 2023 - 10:22 AM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Saint Mary’s vs. VCU

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Saint Mary’s Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Logan Johnson	13.9	5.5	3.4	19.4	17.3	22.8	0.8	3.0
Aidan Mahaney	13.7	2.6	1.9	16.3	15.6	18.2	1.8	1.6
Alex Ducas	13.2	5.4	1.0	18.7	14.2	19.7	2.3	1.8
Mitchell Saxen	9.5	7.7	1.4	17.2	10.9	18.6	0.0	1.9
Augustas Marciulionis	3.3	0.8	0.9	4.1	4.2	5.0	0.2	1.1
Kyle Bowen	4.9	8.1	1.5	12.9	6.4	14.5	0.8	0.5
Harry Wessels	1.0	0.8	0.1	1.9	1.1	2.0	0.0	0.2
Joshua Jefferson	3.6	2.6	0.8	6.2	4.4	7.0	0.4	0.9
Luke Barrett	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chris Howell	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

VCU Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Brandon Johns	10.2	5.0	0.4	15.2	10.7	15.7	0.3	3.0
Ace Baldwin	10.8	2.7	3.4	13.5	14.2	16.9	1.0	3.0
Jalen Deloach	8.2	6.2	0.6	14.5	8.8	15.1	0.0	1.8
Jamir Watkins	8.3	5.0	0.8	13.3	9.1	14.1	0.8	2.1
Jayden Nunn	7.7	2.1	0.9	9.8	8.6	10.7	0.9	1.8
David Shriver	5.2	2.0	0.3	7.2	5.5	7.5	1.2	0.5
Nicholas Kern	5.6	3.1	0.6	8.7	6.2	9.3	0.1	0.7
Zeb Jackson	2.7	0.8	0.6	3.5	3.3	4.2	0.1	0.9
Josh Banks	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Toibu Lawal	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0
Christian Fermin	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Alphonzo Billups	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arnold Henderson VI	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Saint Mary’s vs. VCU Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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