Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 17, 2023 - 1:26 PM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

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Iowa State Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Jaren Holmes	15.1	4.3	3.9	19.4	18.9	23.2	1.8	2.7
Gabe Kalscheur	14.7	2.9	1.9	17.6	16.6	19.5	3.2	1.8
Osun Osunniyi	5.5	2.7	0.7	8.2	6.2	8.9	0.1	0.9
Caleb Grill	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tamin Lipsey	7.6	4.0	4.8	11.5	12.4	16.4	0.2	1.5
Robert Jones	5.5	3.6	0.9	9.1	6.3	10.0	0.0	0.8
Aljaz Kunc	5.0	2.9	1.0	7.9	6.0	8.9	1.0	1.0
Tre King	8.0	5.8	0.3	13.8	8.3	14.1	0.3	1.3
Hason Ward	4.4	3.5	0.5	8.0	5.0	8.5	0.0	0.1
Demarion Watson	2.2	3.5	0.5	5.7	2.7	6.2	0.2	0.3
Eli King	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Conrad Hawley	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Blake Hinson	14.7	6.7	1.1	21.4	15.8	22.5	2.8	3.0
Jamarius Burton	12.2	4.4	3.2	16.5	15.4	19.8	0.5	2.8
Nelly Cummings	10.5	2.8	4.3	13.3	14.8	17.6	1.8	2.2
Greg Elliott	10.1	4.3	1.1	14.3	11.1	15.4	2.3	2.0
Nike Sibande	7.6	4.1	1.0	11.7	8.7	12.8	1.2	1.7
Federiko Federiko	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Guillermo Diaz Graham	7.3	8.0	1.4	15.3	8.7	16.6	0.5	2.7
Jorge Diaz Graham	1.1	1.0	0.2	2.2	1.3	2.3	0.2	0.5
John Hugley	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Nate Santos	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Aidan Fisch	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
KJ Marshall	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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