Creighton vs. NC State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks

Mar 17, 2023 - 8:30 AM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

In addition to projecting players this year, I’m also teaming up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game.

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2023 March Madness Player Prop Bets: Creighton vs. NC State

Creighton vs. NC State

All betting odds are from:

Creighton

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Ryan Nembhard Over 3.5 Assists	-125	1.25	1	UB
Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 21.5 PRAs	-110	1.1	1	UB

NC State

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Jarkel Joiner Under 18.5 Points	-105	1.05	1	MGM

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game >>

Here’s what I expect to be my general flow for working and betting over the course of March Madness.

Monitor our premium spread projections and total projections.
Track any team-level bets I make in our BettingPros app. I don’t plan to go too heavy into this market since this is my first year with NCAA game projections.
Do player projections (points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made and free throws made).
Publish a premium article for every game with all of my player projections and prop bets. Since I don’t follow college basketball, I won’t provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of March Madness. Just doesn’t seem worth it.
Post some of my favorite player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord.

If there’s a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.