Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 17, 2023 - 4:03 PM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue

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Fairleigh Dickinson Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Demetre Roberts	12.6	2.6	3.6	15.2	16.2	18.8	1.4	2.1
Grant Singleton	11.4	3.4	3.1	14.8	14.5	17.9	1.9	1.2
Ansley Almonor	11.7	4.6	1.3	16.2	13.0	17.6	1.9	1.1
Joe Munden	9.4	5.0	1.0	14.4	10.4	15.4	0.7	1.3
Sean Moore	5.7	4.3	0.9	10.0	6.6	10.9	0.5	0.5
Heru Bligen	3.5	1.9	0.3	5.5	3.9	5.8	0.0	0.5
Jo’el Emanuel	1.8	1.5	0.6	3.3	2.5	4.0	0.1	0.3
Sebastien Lamaute	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0
Cameron Tweedy	3.0	2.6	0.5	5.6	3.5	6.0	0.0	0.2
Brayden Reynolds	1.5	0.9	0.9	2.4	2.4	3.3	0.0	0.2
Trevon Blassingame	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Daniel Rodriguez	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Pier-Olivier Racine	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Brandon Upshaw	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Purdue Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Zach Edey	25.9	13.3	2.0	39.2	27.9	41.2	0.0	5.7
Fletcher Loyer	10.0	1.4	2.6	11.5	12.6	14.1	1.4	2.0
Braden Smith	11.1	4.3	5.6	15.5	16.8	21.1	1.1	2.9
Mason Gillis	10.2	5.0	2.1	15.2	12.3	17.3	1.6	1.7
Brandon Newman	10.8	4.9	2.1	15.7	13.0	17.9	1.6	2.0
Caleb Furst	3.8	2.9	0.6	6.7	4.4	7.2	0.2	0.6
Trey Kaufman-Renn	3.3	1.2	0.6	4.6	4.0	5.2	0.1	0.8
David Jenkins	5.2	1.5	1.2	6.8	6.4	7.9	1.0	0.6
Ethan Morton	3.3	2.3	2.4	5.6	5.7	8.0	0.6	0.6
Brian Waddell	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carson Barrett	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chase Martin	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Sam King	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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