Kent State vs. Indiana: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 17, 2023 - 6:04 PM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Kent State vs. Indiana

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Kent State Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Sincere Carry	16.1	4.0	4.2	20.1	20.3	24.3	1.9	3.4
Malique Jacobs	12.3	5.9	3.3	18.2	15.6	21.4	0.6	3.4
Miryne Thomas	11.2	6.8	0.8	18.0	12.0	18.8	2.3	1.9
Jalen Sullinger	10.2	1.9	0.8	12.1	11.0	12.9	2.1	1.0
Voncameron Davis	4.8	3.0	0.3	7.8	5.1	8.1	0.6	0.8
Chris Payton	6.9	6.0	0.4	12.8	7.3	13.2	0.0	1.7
Cli’Ron Hornbeak	5.4	5.7	0.3	11.2	5.7	11.4	0.0	0.9
Giovanni Santiago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Delrecco Gillespie	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Julius Rollins	1.1	1.0	0.2	2.1	1.3	2.3	0.2	0.2
Akeem Odusipe	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Indiana Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Trayce Jackson-Davis	21.8	12.8	4.1	34.6	25.8	38.7	0.0	5.8
Jalen Hood-Schifino	15.1	5.1	3.9	20.2	19.0	24.1	1.3	2.7
Miller Kopp	8.5	3.0	1.2	11.5	9.7	12.7	1.9	0.7
Race Thompson	8.0	5.7	1.0	13.6	9.0	14.6	0.3	1.9
Tamar Bates	6.5	1.7	1.1	8.2	7.6	9.3	1.1	0.9
Malik Reneau	6.2	4.2	0.7	10.4	6.9	11.1	0.1	1.3
Trey Galloway	6.2	3.1	1.7	9.3	7.9	11.0	0.9	1.1
Jordan Geronimo	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.5	0.3	0.6	0.0	0.1
Xavier Johnson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kaleb Banks	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CJ Gunn	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Logan Duncomb	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Anthony Leal	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Shaan Burke	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Nathan Childress	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Hogan Orbaugh	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Michael Shipp	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Kent State vs. Indiana Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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