Duke vs. Tennessee: 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

Mar 17, 2023 - 8:38 PM

The first Thursday and Friday of March Madness are the most enjoyable days of college basketball, but the Round of 32 features better teams, more storylines and more drama.

In the East Region, there will be just one game on Saturday. It’s a good one though, as the Duke Blue Devils take on the Tennessee Volunteers for a chance to play in the Sweet 16.

Duke hasn’t lost a game since February 11. The Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament and now look to be in prime position to make a run.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Volunteers escaped Louisiana last night. The Vols don’t have Zakai Zeigler but still have one of the best defenses in the nation. However, Duke’s defense has looked like one of the best over the last month. Which defense will prevail on Saturday?

College Basketball Best Bets: East Region 3/18

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Duke Blue Devils vs. Tennessee Volunteers

The Blue Devils have absolutely dominated on the offensive glass this year. Duke has added 36.3% of offensive rebounds and continue to shoot it well from the field.

Duke has nailed 33.7% from deep and 51.5% from inside the arc. But more importantly, the Blue Devils have hit 76.8% from the free throw line this year.

Tennessee fouls at a very high rate due to their aggressive style of defense. But that style of defense also earns Tennessee 22.2% of turnovers per game this season.

The Vols have held teams to 26.4% from three and 44.5% from inside the arc. Those are incredible numbers, especially from downtown. Duke doesn’t take a ton of three-pointers. The Blue Devils will work inside and try to get easier buckets against Tennessee.

On the other hand, Duke won’t earn a ton of turnovers. But that defense has done well, holding teams to 30.1% from three and 46.4% from inside the arc. The Vols, just like Duke, dominate the glass but Duke should be fundamentally sound on the defensive glass, as the Blue Devils have held teams to 25.8% offensive rebounds.

Plus, Duke has also kept fouls very low, which should help them towards the end of the game.

Tennessee couldn’t score at a solid rate against Louisiana in the first game. Meanwhile, Duke held Oral Roberts to a low number. I like Duke to dominate Tennessee and keep this game lower scoring.

Bet: Duke -3 (-110)

Bet: Under 128 (-110)

More Round 2 Picks & Predictions

• Kansas vs. Arkansas
• UCLA vs. Northwestern
• Missouri vs. Princeton
• Alabama vs. Maryland
• San Diego State vs. Furman
• Texas vs. Penn State
• Houston vs. Auburn

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