Auburn vs. Houston: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Mar 18, 2023 - 11:05 AM

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)

2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Auburn vs. Houston

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Auburn Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Wendell Green	13.2	3.8	3.9	17.0	17.1	20.9	1.2	5.3
Johni Broome	13.0	9.2	1.3	22.2	14.2	23.5	0.2	2.1
Jaylin Williams	8.3	4.3	1.7	12.6	9.9	14.2	0.9	1.5
Allen Flanigan	9.5	5.3	1.3	14.8	10.8	16.1	1.1	2.3
K.D. Johnson	8.1	2.1	1.2	10.3	9.3	11.5	1.0	2.5
Dylan Cardwell	2.3	2.9	0.7	5.2	3.0	5.9	0.0	0.2
Chris Moore	1.9	1.3	0.3	3.2	2.2	3.5	0.2	0.5
Zep Jasper	2.3	0.9	0.4	3.1	2.6	3.5	0.5	0.3
Tre Donaldson	1.5	1.2	0.9	2.7	2.4	3.6	0.2	0.3
Yohan Traore	1.1	0.9	0.1	2.0	1.2	2.1	0.1	0.2
Lior Berman	1.8	1.1	0.1	3.0	1.9	3.1	0.4	0.1
Chance Westry	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Babatunde Akingbola	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jalen Harper	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chandler Leopard	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carter Sobera	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Houston Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Marcus Sasser	10.2	2.0	1.6	12.2	11.8	13.8	1.3	3.0
Jarace Walker	13.0	9.1	1.7	22.1	14.7	23.8	0.9	2.1
J’Wan Roberts	12.2	10.7	1.1	22.9	13.3	24.0	0.0	2.6
Jamal Shead	10.9	3.8	4.9	14.7	15.8	19.6	1.1	1.9
Tramon Mark	10.3	5.8	1.7	16.2	12.1	17.9	0.9	2.9
Emanuel Sharp	5.8	2.7	0.4	8.5	6.3	9.0	1.1	1.5
Ja’Vier Francis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Terrance Arceneaux	3.8	2.9	0.5	6.6	4.3	7.1	0.4	0.4
Reggie Chaney	2.2	2.4	0.2	4.6	2.5	4.8	0.0	0.4
Ramon Walker	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ryan Elvin	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Darius Bowser	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Auburn vs. Houston Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

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