2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets

Mar 28, 2023 - 1:43 PM

We had 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Two weeks later, we’re down to four.

And the Final Four teams are pretty shocking. The UConn Huskies were the only team some analysts picked to make it this far. But nobody had Miami, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic playing April basketball.

That’s why we love this sport.

Let’s break down the two games in the Final Four on April 1.

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Final Four Picks & Predictions (2023 NCAA Tournament)

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

This game has Florida Atlantic-Tennessee vibes.

San Diego State has been tremendous defensively this year but its offense has been subpar. The Aztecs have shot 33.9% from three and 49% from inside the arc this season. According to KenPom, the Aztecs have an offensive efficiency of 110.7, 75th in the nation. That’s not top-tier.

The Aztecs earned many offensive rebounds in the second half of their Elite Eight game against Creighton. That allowed the Aztecs to squeeze by with a win over the Bluejays. But Florida Atlantic has held teams to 25.2% of offensive rebounds. The Owls also limit fouls at a high rate and keep teams from scoring, holding opponents under 45% from inside the arc.

The Aztecs will struggle offensively if they can’t rebound off misses. On the other hand, the Owls are shooting 36.5% from three this season. So far, San Diego State has benefitted from teams struggling from downtown, but Florida Atlantic hasn’t. They just shot 9-for-23 from downtown, hitting over 39% of looks from three against Kansas State.

So give me Floria Atlantic and the two points.

Bet: Florida Atlantic +2 (-110)

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UConn Huskies vs. Miami Hurricanes

Miami’s been unstoppable offensively. Over the last two games, the Hurricanes have dropped 89 on Houston and 88 on Texas.

That’s ridiculous. But the magic will soon run out. UConn held the nation’s best offense to 54 points in its Elite Eight game against Gonzaga. Ultimately, Drew Timme’s foul trouble helped, but that’s why UConn will do it. UConn is aggressive on both ends of the floor.

They’re also deep. UConn has great guard play from Andre Jackson. He reminds me of Josh Giddey at this point. Then they’ve got shooters like Jordan Hawkins and Joey Calcaterra. Their bigs include Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, and neither has been stopped throughout the Tournament.

UConn has dragged down 38.5% of offensive rebounds this season and should have a field day inside. Miami has allowed opponents to shoot 51.6% from inside the arc. So a guy like Sanogo and even Clingan should get some easy buckets around the rim.

UConn will get more second chances along with better looks from the floor. I’ll back UConn to finally put away Miami in the Final Four.

Bet: UConn -5.5 (-110)

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