College Football Futures: Best Bets for 2021 Heisman Trophy Winner

Aug 8, 2021 - 10:58 AM

Running back Ed Smith modeled for the original Heisman Trophy in 1935. Wide receiver and kick returner Desmond Howard turned the “Heisman pose” into a cultural phenomenon in 1991 when he flashed the classic stiff-arm in the end zone.

But in today’s college football world, the Heisman is a de facto quarterbacking award. Over the past 20 years, QBs have won it 80% of the time. Three running backs and receiver DeVonta Smith, last year’s honoree, are the only exceptions. As if to drive home the point, the Trust later vacated one runner’s award. The voters don’t have quite the tunnel vision of those picking the NFL MVP, but they’re close.

So it makes sense to narrow the field and focus on signal-callers when evaluating this year’s Heisman futures market. The trick, of course, is finding the right ones.

I began with all quarterbacks listed at 50-1 or lower in the BettingPros consensus odds to isolate the top contenders. Two dozen names qualified.

Check out our consensus futures odds for Heisman Trophy Winner >>

Then I filtered the list to a top 10 by comparing their 2020 stats such as accuracy, touchdowns, interceptions, and, to a lesser extent, rushing yardage; their 2021 position rankings and fantasy projections from several sources; and team outlooks based on things like ESPN’s Power Index and PFF’s estimate of NCAA championship probabilities.

Next, I booted three quarterbacks from smaller or overmatched schools unlikely to make noise as the season progresses. Headlines and narrative are key factors in the Heisman derby. Matt Corral’s Ole Miss may be stellar on offense but too shaky on defense to reach double-digit wins. He, or someone like Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder or UCF’s Dillon Gabriel, could capture enough media attention if their team and their counting stats are spectacular, but it’s an uphill fight.

Finally, I assigned fair odds to the seven remaining QBs. Comparing my line with the best available prices at five major U.S. sportsbooks left me with three lower-priced overlays — Spencer Rattler, D.J. Uiagalelei, and Sam Howell — and one intriguing longshot, Casey Thompson.

This unscientific exercise won’t earn me the Fields Medal for mathematics, but it may help highlight potential values available to odds shoppers. Speculators should note that the prices listed here are only available in certain states.

Quarterback	School	Estimated Fair Odds	Best Price Found
Spencer Rattler	Oklahoma	+629	+800
D.J. Uiagalelei	Clemson	+852	+1100
Sam Howell	North Carolina	+914	+1700
J.T. Daniels	Georgia	+1393	+1200
Bryce Young	Alabama	+1428	+1200
Casey Thompson	Texas	+1954	+5500
D’Eriq King	Florida	+2198	+2000

 
Note: Odds as posted on Aug. 6 and subject to change and availability

Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma): +800 @ FanDuel

The case for Rattler is simple. He’s widely considered the No. 1 quarterback in the NCAA, and he’s leading a team with a solid shot at the national championship. His 172.6 passing-efficiency rating in 2020 understates the steady progress he showed after a mistake-riddled beginning as a redshirt freshman. He’s loaded again with pass-catching weapons, including touchdown machine Marvin Mims.

At this point, the word is out, and Rattler is the clear favorite. But if he takes full advantage of the team’s soft early-season schedule, his price could shrink a lot further.

D.J. Uiagalelei (Clemson): +1100 @ FanDuel

The Tigers’ QB has a short resume after stepping in for two games last season as a true freshman when Covid-19 sidelined Trevor Lawrence – a short but impressive resume. He led Clemson to a come-from-behind victory over Boston College. Then he threw for more than 400 yards in a double-overtime loss to Notre Dame.

Uiagalelei will get tested early as Clemson opens against Georgia on Sept. 4 in a spotlight matchup with Heisman and playoff implications for both sides. After that, though, the Tigers get arguably the easiest schedule among the nation’s elite teams.

Sam Howell (North Carolina): +1700 @ DraftKings

Howell, who displayed uncanny poise last season steering the Tar Heels to the Orange Bowl, may offer the best combination of probability and price on the board. He was even more efficient than Rattler in 2020, and some rank him first in the country at the position for 2021. Howell is also a popular choice among early mockers to go No. 1 overall in next year’s NFL draft.

North Carolina, for now, is ranked toward the bottom of the nation’s top 20. Even so, this is an up-and-coming squad that could coalesce as a title contender. The downside is a schedule that may be tougher than it appears at first glance.

Casey Thompson (Texas): +5500 @ FoxBet

Thompson has a way to go before becoming a serious part of the Heisman conversation. That’s why he’s 50-1. For one thing, he’s not yet the Longhorns QB. The junior still has to fend off Hudson Card for the starting job.

Though both quarterbacks have been inconsistent during the offseason, Thompson showed what he could do when pressed into action last year, tossing four second-half TDs in the Alamo Bowl. Coach Steve Sarkisian will probably end up rolling with him, albeit on a short leash. Texas is only projected for about nine wins, but Sark’s team could also become a surprise title contender.

• Best Bets for Heisman Trophy Winner

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