Iowa State Cyclones vs. UNLV Rebels Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 16, 2021 - 1:27 AM

Iowa State is coming off a loss to in-state rival  Iowa. Matt Campbell has yet to beat Kirk Ferentz since he has been at Iowa State. Iowa State will have to shake off this loss going into the UNLV matchup. This game is sold out and we should see Iowa State with fans in the stands since they travel well. With Iowa State stealing UNLV’s basketball coaching TJ Otzelberger during the offseason, there will be some added drama to this game.

UNLV is 0-2 on the year and facing a dangerous Iowa State defense. UNLV has given up 72 points through two games and has scored 43. Iowa State is going to be a tough defense to score on. Last week they gave up almost all their points off turnovers. UNLV will have to beat Iowa State by their defense which they haven’t been able to do this year. Since there is no value on the Moneyline, we will have to explore the spread and total while betting on this game. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Details

• Opening Lines: Iowa State  -30.5, Total 52.5
• Last Game: September 20, 2008, UNLV 34-31
• Winning Streak: UNLV (1)

Overview

UNLV went 0-6 last year and is currently 0-2 this year. UNLV does not have a win since 2019. During that span, they are averaging giving up 37 points per game. The lowest number of points that a team has scored on UNLV during that time is 34 points against San Diego State. Iowa State has been turning the ball over this year, but they will score on this UNLV defense. 

UNLV has struggled on offense too. Last game they threw for 60 yards, had 43 yards rushing, and their top receiver had 27 yards. With Iowa State’s defense, they are going to struggle to move the ball. Iowa State has been susceptible to the big play, shown by UNI in Week 1. I think UNLV will score based on that reason. 

Iowa State looked great defensively so far. After playing two in-state rivals back-to-back this year they are ready to start getting out of the state and then into Big 12 play. Iowa scored 27 points against Iowa State. Twenty of these points were scored off turnovers where they were given a short field. Take away those twenty points, and they gave up seven to a great Iowa team. UNLV will struggle to score on this defense unless they can get some turnovers. 

Iowa State has struggled on offense so far this year. They are still figuring things out. Iowa is an in-state rival and has one of the best defenses in the country. We will see Iowa State get better from here. Brock Purdy threw three interceptions. Breece Hall, one of the best running backs in the nation, fumbled the ball on the six-yard line, which was given up for a touchdown. This game will be a true test of whether the offense has regressed this season or if playing both in-state has impacted their offense. 

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Bottom Line

Iowa State has struggled offensively this year and given up the ball too many times. 30.5 is a big line to cover for an Iowa State team that has only beaten opponents by more than 30.5 points 4 times since Matt Campbell joined. All those teams have been Big 12 teams that Campbell is familiar with. UNLV is a bad team but Campbell has a bad habit of playing bad teams close. I think if Iowa State gets up they start running the ball. Breece Hall is a great back and Iowa State needs to get him going to be able to win games during Big 12 play. Betting on history and taking UNLV to cover 30.5.

Pick: UNLV -30.5 (-110)

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