Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 22, 2021 - 10:18 AM

These two programs haven’t met since 1964, so you can throw any history out the door before they face off at Soldier Field on Saturday. The Badgers roll into the weekend 1-1, rebounding last week to dominate Eastern Michigan after falling to Penn State in the opener. Despite the victory, questions remain around their QB Graham Mertz’s ability to be the difference against a major opponent like Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish (3-0) have played tight contests throughout the early schedule. Their offensive line remains the most significant question mark moving forward. Which one of these elite programs will notch a massive victory on a neutral site with the nation watching their noon EST kickoff?

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Pags’ NCAAF Picks YTD: 11-2-1 (+8.4 units)

Details

• Opening Line: Wisconsin -6
• Current Line: Wisconsin -6.5
• Over/Under: 46.5
• Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
• Start Time: 12:00 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Notre Dame 31, Wisconsin 7

Overview

The offensive line woes continued for Notre Dame against Purdue, as they allowed the Boilermakers pressure to disrupt the offensive gameplan for much of the first half before showing some signs of life down the stretch of their contest. A lot of that progress up front was a schematic blocking change made by the Irish going to max protect often. This change helped QB Jack Coan get into a rhythm in the second half with a 6 of 9 for 137 yards and a touchdown over the final 30 minutes. If Notre Dame is successful against the Wisconsin pass rush this week, they will need to execute this type of blocking and play calling on Saturday.

Wisconsin’s offense needs to be efficient on the ground, as their QB has a knack for making the bad throws at the worst times. For instance, a 4th quarter INT at the goal line against Penn State sealing the loss. Graham Mertz will have to protect the ball against the Notre Dame secondary led by S Kyle Hamilton. He’s a playmaker who has impacted every game he’s played this year for the Irish.

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Trends

• Wisconsin is 2-5 in its last 7 games ATS
• Totals have gone UNDER in 6 of Wisconsin’s last 7 games
• Notre Dame ML is 18-2 in their previous 20 games
• Totals have gone OVER in 2 of Notre Dame’s last 3 games
• Notre Dame leads the all-time series 8-6-2

Bottom Line

Both teams will struggle to construct long drives against two fierce defenses. FanDuel Sportsbook’s UNDER 46.5 (-106) is well in play in Chicago this week. Expect plenty of handoffs in the early going as both coaches play it close to the vest in the first half. Things may open up after halftime, but the best units on the field are the defenses. When you consider that, finding a way for Wisconsin to cover the 6.5 is difficult. This game should hover around a field goal either way for most of the day. Notre Dame’s ML +205 is tempting, but they’ve come close to losing to far inferior talents than Wisconsin will bring. So, we won’t recommend that play despite the nice plus money number.

Prediction: Wisconsin 22, Notre Dame 20

Picks: Notre Dame +6.5 | 1.0 units, UNDER 46.5 | 1.0 units

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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