Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 22, 2021 - 10:17 AM

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Michigan State enters the weekend 3-0, after an impressive 38-17 victory in Miami versus the Hurricanes on Saturday. The Spartans’ fast start to 2021 can be directly linked to the sensational play of their offense, especially sophomore QB Payton Thorne and junior RB Kenneth Walker III. On the other hand, Nebraska (2-2) has sandwiched two tough losses to Illinois and Oklahoma around two blowout victories against Buffalo and Fordham. The Cornhuskers’ defense has flashed at times in 2021, but are they up for the road challenge that faces them this Saturday night at Spartan Stadium as the faithful “Stripe the Stadium” in green and white?

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Pags’ NCAAF Picks YTD: 11-2-1 (+8.4 units)

Details

• Opening Line: Michigan State -3.5
• Current Line: Michigan State -4.5
• Over/Under: 51.5
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
• Start Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Last Meeting: Nebraska 9, Michigan State 6

Overview

Nebraska has been shuffling their running backs all season, but QB Adrian Martinez remains the focal point of the Cornhuskers offense under Scott Frost. Martinez’s play under Frost is best described as inconsistent. At times, he isn’t accurate with his throws or tucks the ball away too soon and takes off before the play has broken down. Nevertheless, he is the key on Saturday if Nebraska wants to outscore Michigan State, which has put up a boatload of points already on the year.

The Spartans have been impressive on offense, but their defensive line keeps offensive coordinators up all night. Last week, DE Drew Beesley willed his team to victory with a strip-sack on Miami’s QB just as it appeared the Hurricanes had the momentum. The line has eight sacks on sacks on the season, with their pressure leading to five turnovers. They will look to contain QB Adrian Martinez and have a sizeable advantage against the Nebraska offensive line that surrendered five sacks last week to Oklahoma.

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Trends

• Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
• Totals have gone UNDER in 4 of Nebraska’s last 5 games against Big 10 opponents 
• Michigan State is 4-12-1 in their last 17 games played on Saturday
• Totals have gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 home games
• Nebraska leads the all-time series 9-2

Bottom Line

Inconsistency has plagued the Scott Frost era in Lincoln. Despite a fine effort last week against Oklahoma, their offense hasn’t been reliable. Whether it’s Adrian Martinez, the bevy of running backs, or an o-line without continuity, Nebraska often gets in its own way. Michigan State appears to have quickly turned things around from a down 2020. The pass rush is elite, and the Cornhuskers do not have an answer for it.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s 4.5 point spread represents an overreaction from last week’s effort versus OU. State is the better team and deserves to be a longer favorite. As for the total of 51.5, it is hard to say if Michigan State has solved their offensive woes or just faced inferior competition, and Nebraska won’t do enough to help get to the number. Play the under and the Scott Frost era trends to continue amongst a raucous crowd in East Lansing on Saturday night.

Prediction: Michigan State 27 Nebraska 17

Picks: Michigan State -4.5 | 1.0 units, UNDER 51.5 | 1.0 units

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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