Best Under the Radar College Football Bets for Week 4 (2021)

Sep 22, 2021 - 4:42 PM

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Our Week 3 under-the-radar best bets started on a good note. Louisiana got the job done against Ohio, beating the Bobcats by 35 points Thursday night to cover a 20-point spread easily.

Unfortunately, Utah and Vanderbilt failed us big time. In overtime, the Utes lost straight up to San Diego State, and quarterback Charlie Brewer has since left the program. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt never really had a chance at covering against Stanford and ultimately lost by 18.

This resulted in another 1-2 week. It’s not the worst-case scenario, but there’s certainly room for improvement. Let’s flip the momentum back in our favor with my Week 4 under-the-radar bets.

• Week 3 Record: 1-2
• 2021 season record: 5-6

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Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners +3 at Memphis Tigers

Both teams enter this game sporting undefeated records, but it’s the Tigers who could be ripe for a letdown performance.

Last week, Memphis knocked off SEC foe Mississippi State at home in one of the wildest games of Week 3. Just watch how the last eight minutes played out:

The cliff notes? A lot went right for Memphis down the stretch, including a ridiculous punt return touchdown that occurred after a Bulldogs player seemingly downed the ball inside Memphis’ 10-yard line.

Beating an SEC opponent is always a big accomplishment for any Group of Five program. But the Tigers can’t afford to celebrate for too long, as the UTSA Roadrunners are no joke.

UTSA has already gone into Champaign, Ill., and knocked off the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Roadrunners were among the preseason favorites to win an improving Conference USA.

This game will be a strength vs. strength battle. The Tigers rank 21st in the nation with an average of 221 rushing yards per game, while the Roadrunners rank top 20 in defending the run, allowing only 2.57 yards per carry this season. Against Illinois — the best team UTSA has faced all season — the Roadrunners held the Illini to just 146 rushing yards on 35 attempts. UTSA has the guys up front to slow down Memphis’ rushing attack.

The Roadrunners also have a clear advantage offensively. UTSA quarterback Frank Harris could be in store for a big day against a Memphis defense, allowing an average of 400 passing yards this season. The Tigers allowed 419 passing yards last week against Mississippi State and gave up 582 passing yards to Arkansas State earlier in the season.

This line opened at Memphis -5 before dropping immediately. UTSA is battle-tested, while Memphis is coming off an emotional victory. It wouldn’t stun me if the Roadrunners won straight up.

Pick: UTSA +3, feel free to bet the moneyline at +145

Missouri Tigers -2 at Boston College Eagles 

On the surface, it makes sense to see Missouri as the favorite in this SEC-ACC crossover game. The Eagles are without starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec for likely the rest of the season due to a hand injury suffered two weeks ago.

While that’s a devastating blow for a Boston College team with high hopes this season, the Eagles match up relatively well with the Tigers.

Boston College leans heavily on its running game, even more so with Jurkovec out. Last week against Temple, the Eagles rushed 38 times for 179 yards. New starter Dennis Grosel was eased into action, throwing just 15 passes in a 28-3 win over Temple.

Sure, that was against a terrible Temple team. But the formula for success is there against Missouri. The Tigers rank 126th in the country against the run and is allowing 6.37 yards per rush attempt. Mizzou recently gave up 340 yards on the ground to a Kentucky team that also lacks an explosive passing game. Kentucky’s game plan gives B.C. a template for beating the Tigers.

I’m also a big fan of this Boston College defense, which ranks 18th against the pass and 34th against the run. The Eagles have an experienced secondary and head coach Jeff Hafley is a former NFL defensive backs coach. Halfley should have his back four prepared for Tigers quarterback Connor Bazelak, who’s thrown for 897 yards and nine touchdowns this year.

This will definitely be a more difficult task without Jurkovec, but I’m confident the Eagles can control the game on the ground, keep Bazelak and slow down the Mizzou offense. I’ll gladly take the two points at home.

Pick: Boston College +2, feel free to play the moneyline at +110

Indiana Hoosiers -9 at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

I love Indiana coach Tom Allen. But he’s got a tough task on his hands. Allen will have to get the Hoosiers ready for a road trip to Bowling Green coming off an emotional, hard-fought home loss to Cincinnati. Even worse, the Hoosiers need to bounce back after losing a game they probably should’ve won.

Indiana out-gained Cincinnati and held leads throughout the game. However, the Hoosiers turned the ball over four times, including twice in a row while trailing in the fourth quarter.

The big question for Indiana has been quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who once again played poorly in his third start coming off a torn ACL. Penix went 17-for-40 with 224 yards, two touchdowns, and three costly interceptions. Allen claims Penix is healthy and will start against the Hilltoppers, but it seems as if something’s off.

Western Kentucky is no slouch either. The Hilltoppers love to chuck the ball downfield and have accrued 913 passing yards in just two games.

Indiana’s defense remains a strength, and the secondary did a great job against Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder last week. The Heisman Trophy hopeful threw for just 210 yards and a touchdown in Cincinnati’s win. However, the Hoosiers haven’t faced an offense with the firepower Bailey Zappe and the Hilltoppers offense possesses.

Defensively, Western Kentucky’s stats are out of whack thanks to a tough loss to Army during which they gave up 339 yards on the ground. However, I take that matchup with a grain of salt, as preparing for Army’s unique triple-option offense is never easy with just a week of prep time. Plus, Indiana’s run game is averaging only 3.46 yards per carry thus far.

This is a tough spot for a Hoosiers team struggling to recreate the magic from their outstanding 2020 campaign. The Hilltoppers have had a week to prepare and will be highly motivated to put up a good effort at home against a Big Ten foe. While Allen is an outstanding motivator, I’m not sure Indiana will be overly inspired in this spot.

Pick: Western Kentucky +9 (play down to +7.5)

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