Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCLA Bruins Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Sep 30, 2021 - 5:11 PM

PAC-12 South play officially heats up this Saturday in Los Angeles as two teams widely considered contenders go at it in the Rose Bowl. Both sitting at 3-1 overall and 1-0 in conference play, Saturday night should tell how this division ends up come December.

Let’s take a closer at the game itself and see where the value remains.

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Details

• Opening Line: UCLA -4, O/U 55
• Current Line: UCLA -3.5, O/U 55.5

Overview 

As the week goes on for Chip Kelly and the Bruins, the health of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson comes into focus as the Bruins have their biggest game of the young 2021 season on deck for Saturday night. Following an arm injury in their 35-24 win vs. Stanford, DTR remains questionable as of Thursday but will be needed in a bad way in this one.

Having produced 200 or more rushing yards in three of the four games to start the season, the Bruins rely on DTR and a stable of running backs to establish their offense, as well as set the pace for their defense who continues to improve and is the best of the Kelly era.

Allowing 30 points per game through their last three, the Bruins now have to contend with an ASU offense getting better by the week. Also led by a dual-threat quarterback in Jayden Daniels, the Sun Devils come to town off their biggest win of the season, a 35-13 route of Colorado last weekend in Tempe.

While the offense played well, the defense took strides to get to what it has the potential to be, allowing just 67 yards through the air on the evening. However, the rushing defense left room for improvement, allowing 183 yards on the ground, a number they will need to improve to have a chance in this one.

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Trends 

• ASU is 0-4 ATS in L5 vs. UCLA
• Over is 7-3 in Sun Devil’s L10 vs. PAC-12

Bottom Line

Despite showing improvement in their most complete performance to date, this Sun Devils team still gave up 90 yards in penalties to remain near the top of the country in the category. Again showing a lack of discipline across the board, the Sun Devils now must face a UCLA team allowing just 2.14 yards per carry.

In this one, I like for Kelly to out scheme Herm Edwards and his staff, and if DTR is healthy enough to go, run away with this one in the second half.

Pick: UCLA -3.5

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