Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 5, 2021 - 6:00 PM

Last week, after Georgia’s convincing win against Arkansas, many people, including myself, stated that Georgia should be ranked first in the AP Poll. That was well before Alabama crushed Ole Miss, 42-21. I stand corrected. Alabama is the number one team in the country.

On the other hand, the Texas A&M Aggies are struggling with two straight losses in SEC play, including a 20-10 loss to Arkansas and a 26-22 loss to Mississippi State last week. Texas A&M had been one of the more consistent teams in college football over the last couple of years, but after an injury to their starting quarterback, all of that has changed.

While the defense has played lights out for the Aggies, they’ve had little room for error due to an offense that has scored a combined 32 points in SEC play through two games this season. There’s no chance the Aggies defend well enough to stay in their game against Alabama, right?

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Details

  • Opening Line: Alabama -9.5, O/U 49.5
  • Current Line:  Alabama -17.5, O/U 51.5
  • Last meeting: October 3, 2020, Alabama 52, Texas A&M 24

Overview

The Texas A&M Aggies are in jeopardy of starting SEC play 0-3 as they’re currently 17.5 point underdogs, at home, against Alabama.

It all went downhill once Haynes King fractured his leg. Backup quarterback Zach Calzada has played like a backup with 744 yards passing, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. To his credit, the offensive line hasn’t done him any favors, but either way, he spends too much time in the pocket and doesn’t get the ball out of his hand quick enough.

The offense averages 376.2 yards per game, thanks to a run game that is averaging 167.4 yards per game. On the defensive end, they’ve allowed just 12.6 points per game and 319.8 yards per game. The Aggies have an elite defense that will keep them in games. However, it’ll be hard for this elite defense to go up against one of the most powerful offenses in college football.

This is a big test, but the good news is that the Aggies are on their home field. The crowd should be in it, and that could keep Alabama off key at some points in this game.

The Crimson Tide are scoring 45.6 points per game behind Heisman favorite Bryce Young, who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and two interceptions. However, the defense has allowed over 20 points per game against SEC competition through two games. While the offense is clicking, SEC offenses are finding a way to score against Alabama a little bit.

Just like A&M, Alabama still has one of the best defenses in the nation. To be fair, they won’t really be tested against an Aggies offense that just isn’t the same without King, or even Kellen Mond, at this point.

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Trends 

  • Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
  • Over is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games as a home underdog.

Bottom Line 

Texas A&M’s defense will be prepared to take on Alabama. They’ve been fantastic in coverage and can make plays all over on the defensive end. We know Bryce Young and the Alabama offense will do damage, but it’s safe to say that A&M will get a couple stops in this game and potentially many big stops in this game.

On the other hand, it’s impossible to trust the Aggies to score any points against Alabama. Calzada has not looked impressive this season, and the offensive line hasn’t helped him at all either.

With A&M at home, Alabama will be kept in check on the offensive end with a really solid defensive performance from the Aggies. Alabama will still win this game and might still win by 18 points or more. But with a total sitting above 50, I’ve got to take the under as the best bet in this game. A 31-10 game seems about right. Is Texas A&M even capable of scoring two touchdowns in this one?

Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.

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