NCAAF Week 6 Best Bets (2021)

Oct 7, 2021 - 4:37 PM

Even before last week’s results, this year’s college football season started to feel that it was Alabama and Georgia in a class of their own, and then everyone else. Barstool Sportsbook was the first to offer Alabama/Georgia vs. The Field odds for who would win the national championship. Chris Fallica’s tweet captured those odds on Twitter, even before Alabama and Georgia easily covered double-digit spreads against top-12 competition.

I've been waiting to see who the first to post this prop would be and @BSSportsbook is the one. And the price is a little higher than I would have guessed, but there's a good chance they make up half the field. pic.twitter.com/eLasV79ARX

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 29, 2021

However, last week was not just about the SEC’s top two heavyweights. Cincinnati made genuine the possibility that a Group of Five school could be selected to the College Football Playoff for the first time after their big road win at South Bend. In addition, Iowa and Penn State both held serve last week and set up a colossal top-four Big Ten matchup this week. Chris Fallica also pointed out how much of a rarity it is two see a highly rated Big Ten matchup not involving Ohio State.

Barring any unforeseen changes in the AP Poll, next weeks Penn State/Iowa game will be the first regular season Big Ten game between two Top 5 opponents without Ohio State being one of them since 1997 Michigan at Penn State.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 3, 2021

Here are my top plays for Week 6 in college football.

Best Bets for Week 6: College Football

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Last Season: 35-22 (+9.5 units)
YTD: 14-7 (+5.6 units)

Georgia (-15.5) at Auburn

Last week we were all in on Georgia at home, figuring that the nation’s best defense would shut down the dual-threat ability of Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson. The Bulldogs’ defensive performance was even more impressive than one could predict, as they held the Razorbacks to 162 total yards and outgained them by 198 yards on the ground. This is Georgia’s second consecutive game in what could be a stretch of four straight games against ranked opponents. While we expect their defense to travel in this high-profile road matchup against the Auburn Tigers, oddsmakers made this line a tad too high.

Two weeks ago, Auburn quarterback Bo Nix was benched for his poor performance during a nail-biting come-from-behind win against Georgia State. However, Nix responded with a solid performance in Baton Rouge last week, as he passed for 255 yards and ran for 74 more in a big road win over LSU. Nix has always been much more solid at home than he has been on the road in his career. He has a 20:1 TD:INT ratio in home starts compared to a 10:10 ratio on the road. In addition, his quarterback rating is 144.0 at home compared to 105.1 on the road, and he completes 8.6% more of his passes when playing at Jordan Hare.

Georgia’s defense looks immovable at the moment, and they have allowed just 23 points through the first five games. However, the home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these teams, and Auburn is 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 games as a home underdog. The Bulldogs are likely to be the much more popular side, but we will be happy to side with the house and root for Auburn.

PICK: Auburn +15.5

Michigan (-3.5) at Nebraska

Each week we look for “fishy lines” that seem too good to be true, and perhaps the “smelliest” one of the week is Michigan laying only a field goal at Nebraska. The Wolverines exorcised the demons and ended a long losing streak at Wisconsin, winning at Camp Randall for the first time in two decades. It was also head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first outright win as an underdog at Michigan. All of this means the Wolverines are due for a letdown in primetime against the Cornhuskers.

Michigan has the sixth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 12.8 PPG. However, Nebraska is not too far behind at 15.5 PPG allowed, ranking 13th in the country. The Cornhuskers are coming off their best performance of the season, pounding Northwestern 56-7. It was encouraging to see Scott Frost’s team rebound with such a solid performance after narrowly missing back-to-back opportunities to beat ranked teams the two weeks prior. Nebraska lost at No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 20 Michigan State by a combined ten points and now look to improve their home record to 4-0 after winning their first three home games by an average of 39.7 PPG.

Nebraska is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, including a 3-0-1 ATS record in their last four against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games, and it would not come as a shock if Nebraska knocks them from the ranks of the unbeaten this week.

PICK: Nebraska +3.5

Notre Dame (-1.5) at Virginia Tech

There is no shame in losing to a fifth-ranked Cincinnati team that is making a great case to be included in the College Football Playoff. However, it was how Notre Dame lost in snapping their 26-game home winning streak that was the issue. The Fighting Irish have many question marks at the moment, most notably at quarterback as Jack Coan was benched in favor of Drew Pyne late in the game. Brian Kelly actually used three quarterbacks against the Bearcats, dialing up some run packages for Tyler Buchner. But, you know what they say, “if you have three quarterbacks, you don’t have one.”

The last time a highly ranked Notre Dame team went into Lane Stadium for a night game, they did not let the Enter Sandman entrance intimidate them and walked out with a convincing 45-23 victory. However, the starting quarterback in that game was Ian Book, who also happens to be the winningest quarterback in school history. Unfortunately, Notre Dame will not have Book’s calming presence in this game, nor will they have an offensive line to pave any running lanes for Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree.

Virginia Tech is Notre Dame’s third consecutive opponent that is coming off a bye week, and that is something that will start to wear on the Fighting Irish, who consistently are facing a fresher team.

Notre Dame is in the unenviable position of having to pick themselves up the game after their CFP hopes were likely evaporated. It does not help that the Fightin Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in October and face a Hokies squad that is 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as a home underdog. In addition, Virginia Tech has already shown they can slow down a high-powered offense like North Carolina’s at home, which will make facing Notre Dame’s offense seem like a walk in the park.

PICK: Virginia Tech +1.5

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