Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Nov 4, 2021 - 1:26 PM

The No. 12 Auburn Tigers (6-2, 3-1 in SEC) kick off a conference clash with the No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2, 3-2) at Kyle Field Saturday. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the game airs on CBS.

Auburn has won four of its last five games, including back-to-back victories at the Arkansas Razorbacks on Oct. 16 and the Ole Miss Rebels last weekend. The Tigers are 5-3 against the spread (ATS) and 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) with the 27th-toughest schedule, according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin.

Texas A&M is on a three-game winning streak, including two 20-point victories over conference competition and a 41-38 upset of the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide as 18.5-point home underdogs on Oct. 9. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS and 3-5 O/U with the 61st-toughest schedule.

The Aggies snapped a three-game losing skid to the Tigers last season with a 31-20 victory as 5-point home favorites. Texas A&M is just 1-2 overall and ATS vs. Auburn since the Aggies hired head coach Jimbo Fisher in 2018.

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Details

  • Opening Line: Texas A&M -6
  • Current Line: Texas A&M -4.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5

Action Report

The betting market is split on this contest. According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on Auburn, while a slight majority of the bets placed (55%) are on Texas A&M at the time of publishing.

Early pro-Under money steamed the Auburn-Texas A&M total down from the 52.5-point opener to the current consensus price. That said, we have a split in this market as well. According to Pregame.com, more money is on the Under but more bets are on the Over.

Trends

Since hiring Fisher in 2018, Texas A&M is 12-7 ATS as a home favorite, 8-7 ATS vs. ranked teams, 16-14 ATS in SEC play and 3-6 ATS following a bye week. For what it’s worth, Auburn has covered four straight games at Texas A&M. But, Auburn is in the first year of head coach Bryan Harsin’s tenure.

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Handicap

There’s more value in fading the early market moves and backing Texas A&M -4 than following the presumed “sharp” money. Typically, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

However, the betting splits written above are tallied after the opener’s initial 1.5-point line movement. Thus, the oddsmakers’ original price on the Aggies was more accurate because they are the more efficient squad.

According to Football Outsiders, Texas A&M has a higher net drive efficiency, net points per drive and net points per play than Auburn. Furthermore, the Aggies have higher net predicted points added (PPA) and yards per play differentials than the Tigers and Texas A&M is better on 3rd down.

Finally, Texas A&M’s defense is underrated because it lives in Georgia’s shadow. Also, I’ve never been a believer in Auburn QB Bo Nix. He’s a three-year starter at Auburn that ranks 10th in the SEC in passer efficiency rating.

For instance, the Aggies have the lowest defensive rushing PPA in the SEC. While Auburn has the 33rd-highest passing rate in the nation. So not only will Texas A&M shut down Auburn’s ground game but the Tigers prefer to pass. This would play into Texas A&M’s hands since it has the 14th-ranked defensive passer efficiency rating. Nix won’t beat the Aggies with his arm and Texas A&M’s defense could force a game-changing turnover.

PICK: TEXAS A&M -4 (-110)

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