NCAAF Week 10 Best Bets (2021)

Nov 5, 2021 - 12:57 AM

After sweeping our three picks last week, we are back to continue our momentum in Week 10. This weekend’s games will take on a slightly different meaning, as the initial College Football Playoff rankings get released on Tuesday night. While there is zero doubt that the Georgia Bulldogs will be ranked No. 1, it will be interesting to see where undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats and Michigan State Spartans will be ranked. The initial rankings give us insight into how the committee views teams up to this point and what the teams on the outside looking in need to do to impress the committee going forward. 

How will the CFP’s rankings play into our picks for this week?

Here are my top plays for Week 10 in college football.

Best Bets for Week 10: College Football

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Last Season: 35-22 (+9.5 units)
YTD: 21-12 (+6.9 units)

Wake Forest at North Carolina: O/U 75.5

The total for the ACC battle between Wake Forest and North Carolina is the only game on the Week 10 slate with an initial opening line in the 70s. However, despite this being one of the highest totals of the entire season, we are not shying away from the over. The Tar Heels are coming off a game against Notre Dame that saw 78 total points scored and over 1,000 total yards of offense amassed. North Carolina did not envision getting off to a 4-4 start after being ranked 10th in the initial AP poll. However, their .500 record cannot be pinned entirely on quarterback Sam Howell, as he continues to pile up huge numbers each week.

Against Notre Dame, Howell threw for 300+ yards and ran for more than 100 for the third time in a game this season. North Carolina has had half of their eight games end with a combined total of 70 or more points, and they have allowed more than 40 points in back-to-back weeks. Conversely, Wake Forest has scored 40 or more points in each of the last three games and has allowed at least 34 points in three of the previous four. These two teams rank 10th and 13th out of 14 conference teams in rush defense, and that combined with how talented Howell and Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman are, punting may be optional in this one.

The over has cashed in each of the last five meetings between these teams in Chapel Hill. The over is also 5-1 in Wake’s last six road games and has cashed in four of North Carolina’s last five games against teams with a winning record. Therefore, do not be reluctant to back this over even though this total is very high.

PICK: OVER 75.5

Liberty at Ole Miss (-10)

Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss squad has played a brutal schedule recently, having to survive a gauntlet of five straight conference opponents, three of them ranked. The Rebels did well to win three of those games, although two of those wins were by five points or fewer. The casual bettor will see a top 15 SEC team laying ten points to an independent team in Liberty and think it is easy money. However, Flames quarterback Malik Willis is every bit as talented as Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, and we expect Liberty’s offense to go toe-to-toe with the high-powered Rebels.

Liberty is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record and is 20-5 in their previous 25 games as a road underdog. Ole Miss has a huge home game on tap next week against the 13th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies, which means the Rebels may not give the Flames their full attention this week.

PICK: Liberty +10

Michigan State (-3) at Purdue

Michigan State’s three-point spread as road favorites over Purdue is officially Week 10’s most fishy line. The Spartans are 8-0 for the first time in six seasons, and control their own destiny for a spot in the College Football Playoff. However, this spot could not be worse for them as they are coming off a huge home win over rival Michigan and end the season with massive games against Ohio State and Penn State starting two weeks from now.

Purdue ranks in the top five in a conference littered with stout defenses, allowing 313.8 yards per game. They are also one of the best defenses from a scoring perspective, as they are just one point shy of having the Big Ten’s best scoring defense. Michigan State is a formidable team led by Heisman hopeful running back Kenneth Walker III. However, they have holes in their secondary that Purdue can take advantage of. Boilermakers wide receiver David Bell leads the conference with 786 yards receiving, and his 53 receptions are second only to Penn State’s Jahan Dotson.

Purdue is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Michigan State, and the underdog is 9-1-1 in the previous 11 meetings in this head-to-head series. This line might smell fishy for a reason, as Purdue is ripe for the upset.

PICK: Purdue +3

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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