Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Nov 5, 2021 - 5:49 PM

The Texas Longhorns (4-4, 2-3 in Big XII) and the Iowa State Cyclones (5-3, 3-2) look to bounce back from disappointing losses when they meet at Jack Trice Stadium Saturday. The kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and airs on Fox Sports 1.

Texas lost 31-24 at the No. 14 Baylor Bears in Week 9 and failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. Longhorns QB Casey Thompson is responsible for the most TDs in the Big XII (20) and leads the conference in passer efficiency rating (163.8). According to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin, Texas is 4-4 against the spread (ATS) and 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) with the sixth-hardest schedule in the country.

Iowa State has fallen out of the top-25 starting the season ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll. The Cyclones lost 38-31 at the West Virginia Mountaineers as 7.5-point road favorites this past weekend. Iowa State is 3-5 ATS and 4-4 O/U with the 23rd-toughest schedule (according to Sagarin).

Each squad will look to establish their run game. Cyclones RB Breece Hall leads the Big XII in rushing yards (985) and rushing TDs (12). But, Texas RB Bijan Robinson ranks right behind Hall in both categories with 967 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs.

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Details

  • Opening Line: Iowa State -7
  • Current Line: Iowa State -6.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 58.5

Action Report

According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the handle is on Texas’s spread at publishing. Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened this game at Iowa State -7, but the pro-Texas money has made the Cyclones’ spread cheaper. The total hasn’t budged off the opener.

Trends

Since Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell took over the program in 2016, the Cyclones are 2-3 overall and 1-4 ATS vs. the Longhorns. However, Iowa State has won two straight over Texas entering this meeting. Also, Iowa State is Big XII-best 31-20 ATS in conference play and 19-8 ATS following a loss.

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Handicap

Let’s lay it with Iowa State because the Cyclones should have no problem storming through Texas’s weak rush defense. But, at the same time, Iowa State’s defense can put up some resistance vs. the Longhorns’ ground game.

For instance, Iowa State averages the 13th-best yards per rush while Texas’s defense ranks 116th in yards per rush allowed, and Iowa State’s defense is 15th in yards per rush allowed.

Furthermore, the Longhorns’ rush defense is getting trampled on lately. Texas has given up at least 220 rushing yards in three straight games. On the other hand, Iowa State has rushed for at least 210 yards in four of its past five games.

Also, there’s a lot of excitement in Austin about first-year Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. And, rightfully so. But, the Big XII seems to be catching up to Sarkisian’s scheme, and Texas has looked outmatched recently. Moreover, Iowa State typically responded well to losses and covered as 30-point favorites following its two losses earlier this season.

Finally, there’s value in fading Texas as a trendy underdog. Oddsmakers knew the public would hammer Texas given the excitement around the program and Iowa State underperforming its preseason expectations.

PICK:  Iowa State -5.5 

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