Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Nov 9, 2021 - 2:08 AM

The Penn State Nittany Lions finally won a game after losing three straight in Big Ten conference play. Three of Penn State’s last four games had been on the road. However, regardless, Penn State had an inexcusable loss to Illinois in October.

Now Penn State will welcome Michigan to Beaver Stadium. It doesn’t get any easier.

Michigan is 8-1 and still fighting for a chance at the Big Ten title while also playing for the College Football Playoff. After a convincing 29-7 win over Indiana last week, Michigan could find themselves in the Big Ten Championship game later this year. But, for now, there’s no looking ahead.

Michigan has a challenging game against an outstanding Penn State team that has plenty of talent. Currently, the Nittany Lions have momentum, and they’d love to knock off Michigan in this game. So here are our picks and predictions on a game that oddsmakers see as evenly matched.

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Details

• Opening Line: Penn State -1, O/U 48
• Current Line: Penn State -1, O/U 48.5
• Last meeting: November 11, 2020, Penn State 27, Michigan 17

Overview 

Right now, the better team is a short underdog. Michigan is 8-1 on the season, with one loss coming against an excellent Michigan State team earlier this year. Michigan is averaging 36.2 points per game while allowing 16 points per game. The offense is dominant behind a running game that has averaged 234.1 yards per game.

On the other hand, the defense has allowed under 300 yards per game, and that’s through nine games this season. So the Wolverines deserve a lot of credit, especially on the defensive end. This group is elite and capable of getting major stops (unless you’re Michigan State).

Meanwhile, Penn State is only averaging 26.8 points per game but has been solid defensively, allowing 16.7 yards per game this season. The defense has given up just above 350 yards per game, but that secondary has been phenomenal, allowing just 213.6 yards passing per game this year.

However, Penn State has allowed 137.1 yards rushing per game this season and has not looked good against the run at all this season. This is the one area where Michigan dominates, rushing the football for nearly 235 yards.

If Michigan finds its way offensively using the ground game, Penn State will have trouble winning this football game.

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Trends 

• Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
• Under is 10-1 in Nittany Lions last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games in November.

Bottom Line 

Michigan should win this football game and hold Penn State to a low amount of points in this game. In turn, Michigan will score their points on the ground and likely put together some long drives that result in points.

Penn State will need to perform in the passing game to score, but until the run game gets going, it will be tricky for the Nittany Lions to score points.

I like the under in this matchup, at 48.5. Neither team should score more than 24 points in this game, and if Michigan is capable of it, Penn State likely will lose this game by two scores. The Nittany Lions are dangerous at home and have won four of their five games at home. However, Michigan is playing for more and is just the better team analytically.

Let’s ride the under here.

Pick: Under 48.5 (-115)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.

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