Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Nov 9, 2021 - 1:52 PM

The Oklahoma Sooners just haven’t been getting enough credit this year. Despite being undefeated, the College Football Playoff committee ranked them out of the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma doesn’t have any ridiculous wins and hasn’t looked all that great, but the mission here is to win games, and Oklahoma has done that.

The question is will it last? The Sooners are headed to Baylor in what should be a massive Big-12 Showdown between the two best Big 12 teams in the nation.

On Saturday, Baylor took a poor loss to TCU, losing 30-28 after throwing an interception near field goal range. The Bears had this game all but wrapped up until Gerry Bohanon threw an interception that he wishes he could have back.

The Bears are now 7-2 on the year but present matchup problems against Oklahoma. Here are our predictions for the highly regarded Big 12 matchup between Oklahoma and Baylor.

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Details

• Opening Line: Oklahoma -6, O/U 63
• Current Line: Oklahoma -6, O/U 63
• Last meeting: December 5, 2020, Oklahoma 27, Baylor 14

Overview 

Despite losing to TCU last week, the Baylor Bears are a terrific football team that has turned the corner this season. Unfortunately, you won’t see the Bears in the College Football Playoff, but a big-time bowl game is within reach.

Baylor is averaging 36.3 points per game and 457.4 yards per game. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed just 20.6 points per game and 364.1 yards per game. Baylor’s offense doesn’t get talked about much, but it stacks up well against Oklahoma’s. Baylor doesn’t have the best passer in Bohanon, but the playmakers surrounding him are excellent.

Meanwhile, the defense has looked great against the run and have done their thing in the pass rush along with the coverage unit. This is an above-average defense, allowing less than three touchdowns per game.

On the other hand, Oklahoma is averaging 42.9 points per game while allowing 24.2 points per game. In addition, the offense is averaging nearly 100 more yards than allowing, with 477 yards per game on the offensive end.

Caleb Williams has been starting for the Sooners as a freshman and continues to get better every game. He’s coming off a six-touchdown performance against Texas Tech with 23 completions for 402 yards. But against this Baylor secondary, it’s not going to be nearly as easy as it was against Texas Tech.

Defensively, Oklahoma can be beaten in coverage but are usually bailed out by a fantastic pass rush that continues to get a load of pressure on the quarterback.

All in all, this game can come down to the final possession. Oklahoma can cover but can also lose this game and lose any hope of making it into the CFP.

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Trends 

• Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
• Under is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Bottom Line 

It’s hard to beat Baylor on the road. In their last five home games, Baylor is 5-0 and has played terrific defense in those games, holding most games under the total.

Baylor matches up exceptionally well against Oklahoma and can give them matchup problems. Baylor doesn’t have the better quarterback, but they’ve got more consistent talent around Bohanan this year. The offensive line is also much better for Baylor, and that Baylor offensive line could be the team that prevents Oklahoma from putting a ton of pressure on the quarterback.

At home, I’ll ride with Baylor to pull off the upset. We all want to see fields being stormed. Baylor compares well against Oklahoma and should be able to keep this game within distance. Baylor might even win this game.

Pick: Baylor +6 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.

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