College Football Conference Winners: Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Aug 28, 2022 - 11:02 AM

Today, we are going to look at value picks in division winners. There are numerous teams who stand out and show immense potential. Let’s dive into these dark-horse candidates.

ACC Atlantic

NC State +475: NC State boasts easily a top-three returning production profile. They have an offensive returning production ranking of 19th paired with a 2021 SP+ offense ranking of 41st and a defensive returning production ranking of first paired with a 2021 SP+ defense ranking of 14th. This is elite returning production from elite units. To put it in perspective, NC State is the only team to rank top 15 in every defensive returning production category: second in tackles, second in passes defended, 12th in pressures, and second in stops. They will also see positive regression in takeaways. The defense ranked 35th in overall havoc rate but only produced 16 takeaways (76th overall). QB Devin Leary will look to replicate his 2021 season (3,433 passing yards, 8.0 yds/att, 35 TDs, and five INTs). He has the potential to push this offense to the next level and that will provide NC State the firepower to break through in a rejuvenated ACC. +475 is an absolute steal.

Big Ten West

Purdue +600: Purdue is coming off arguably their best season since they won the Big 10 in 2000. They finished second in the West last year and showed absolute promise going forward. Purdue is one of seven teams to rank in the top 55 in returning production on offense and defense, paired with a 2021 top 55 SP+ ranking on offense and defense. Putting it mildly, this team is going to be overlooked. They will lose star WR David Bell but bring back QB Aidan O’Connell for his sixth season. O’Connell ranked 21st in PFF passing grade last year and will look to push this offense into the next tier of efficiency. Purdue avoids Ohio State on the schedule but will have to beat Wisconsin in Camp Randall Stadium. +600 for, in my opinion, the clear-cut second-best team in the West, paired with the second-best quarterback in the conference, is too appealing to pass up.

Mountain West (West)

San Jose State +850: San Jose State at +850 to win the division is my favorite bet of the entire year. There are two reasons that stand out to me. First, they get a huge upgrade at QB with Chevan Cordeiro. He ranks 28th in PFF Passing Grade, ninth in BTT (big-time throws 20-plus yards), and 27th in QB Rating in Deep Passing. This will transform a San Jose State offense that was abysmal in numerous advanced statistical categories: standard downs success rate (108th), pass success rate (109th), and offensive pass explosiveness (79th). The second reason is San Jose State ranked ninth in overall Havoc Rate but only managed 12 takeaways (117th overall). The average takeaways for a team that ranked top 30 in Havoc rate is 21.5. That is a massive difference. This team will not rank ninth again in Havoc Rate, but they will still be top 30 and will see positive regression in takeaways. +850 is incredible value for a conference that is lacking severely in experience.

SEC East

Kentucky +1200: Kentucky had an incredible 2021. They beat Florida for the second time in 35 years and the first time in Lexington since 1986. They had a valiant effort against Georgia but fell short in the 30-13 loss. Kentucky is in a fortuitous spot in 2022, as they face seven teams with a defensive returning production ranking of 97th or worse. Will Levis ranked 21st in overall offense PFF Grade and should feast on the majority of these inexperienced defenses. The biggest test will obviously be Georgia. The positive is Georgia is the only team to rank top 30 in 2021 SP+ offense and defense to have a bottom-40 offensive and defensive returning production for this year. One last tidbit is Kentucky is one of those seven aforementioned teams to rank top 55 in offensive and defensive returning production paired with a top-55 2021 SP+ ranking on offense and defense. If Kentucky ends up playing Alabama in the SEC Championship, you can say you heard it here first.

As always, thanks again for reading. Come back during the season for a weekly deep dive into my favorite game of the week. Cheers, team.

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