Bogman’s College Football Week 2 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)

Sep 9, 2022 - 10:39 AM

Check out Bogman’s Week 2 best bets for the college football season!

• Bogman’s Week 1 Record: 7-3

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>

Bogman’s Week 2 Best College Football Bets

Arkansas (-8) vs. South Carolina

Last week we saw both teams win, but Arkansas was impressive, while South Carolina was not. Spencer Rattler looked shaky against Georgia State. He threw two picks, went 3-14 on 3rd downs, and lead the Gamecocks to just over 300 yards of offense and only two offensive touchdowns. The SC defense was looking to improve on their 94th-ranked run defense from last season, but Georgia State ran for 200 yards and averaged 5 yards-per-carry. 

Arkansas was ninth in rushing last season and already put up over 200 on Cincy. Running back Raheim Sanders and QB KJ Jefferson should be licking their chops in this one. The final ingredient here is the pass rush on both sides of the ball. Arkansas tallied four sacks last week. SC didn’t get one while allowing three to a Sun Belt opponent! 

South Carolina should have way more firepower with talented players like RB MarShawn Lloyd and TE Jaheim Bell on offense, but Spencer Rattler showed me nothing. Arkansas should roll in this one. I’ll lay the points!

Bet: Arkansas -8 (-110 on DraftKings)

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Houston (+3.5) @ Texas Tech

This was the first game that caught my eye this week because I was surprised that Texas Tech was favored. This almost feels like the old-school thought process of “A Power 5 team hosting a G5 team has to be favored.” 

Houston is coming off a 12-win 2021 campaign. They return their starting QB Clayton Tune, who has over 1000 pass attempts, 7000 yards, 60 TDs, and has played in 34 games. Texas Tech is a team on the rise. They were over .500 for the first time since 2015, and they looked solid in new HC Joey McGuire’s debut, putting up 63 points. Texas Tech played Murray State in Week 1, and while they did put up over 600 yards, they also lost their starting QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury. 

The Red Raiders have some depth at QB. Hence, it isn’t a total disaster, but this is still not a great matchup for them. Houston is a way more complete team, returning over half the starters on defense for a team that was top 10 in total yards allowed, including two All-Conference players. Houston is better on offense and defense by enough to still be favored on the road, and they’re still dogs! 

Tech bowing up and playing a competitive game would not be shocking, but we are still getting points even in that scenario. The points are safer, of course, but I also don’t hate the money line at +135!

Bet: Houston ML (+135 on DraftKings)

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Miami (-24.5) vs. Southern Miss AND Over 51.5

The Hurricanes are going to do the heavy lifting to get to the total on this one, and if that hits, the spread should also be a cover. This is simply a gigantic mismatch in Miami’s favor. They put 70 points up last week in another mismatch against FCS Bethune-Cookman. 

Southern Miss is a more formidable opponent, of course, but they looked rough last week. They were particularly bad on defense, where they gave up 244 rushing yards to Liberty and let a 3rd-string QB beat them in OT. They also let Liberty control the clock (38:58-30:55 in 3OT) and had five turnovers and ten penalties. The Golden Eagles might not have starting QB Ty Keyes as well. Even if they aren’t, he probably won’t be at 100%, which will lead to poor field position at best and turnovers at worst.

Miami was crisp in Week 1, has a way better roster, and has a potential NFL-caliber QB in Tyler Van Dyke. I think this is a Miami stomping in all 3 phases and that they will put up the majority (if not all) of this total.

Bet: Miami -24.5 (-110) AND Over 51.5 (-110) on BetMGM

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WVU vs. Kansas – Over 59.5

West Virginia is coming off of a game where they just put up 31 against Pitt and had 190 rushing yards. Pitt was fifth against the run last year; they never gave up more than 160 yards and gave up 100+ rushing yards only five times. WVU started Georgia transfer QB JT Daniels against Pitt. The former 5-star didn’t light the world on fire, but he was good enough to score three TD (two passing, one rushing). 

Kansas was 129th last year against the run allowing almost 250 yards per game. They were also 129th in scoring defense allowing over 40 PPG. Kansas hasn’t offered a lot on offense recently, but they put up 56 points last week against a weak FCS opponent in Tennessee Tech. Jalon Daniels took over as the starting Kansas QB for good last season in the final three games, and the Jayhawks averaged just over 37 PPG, mainly due to a 57-point effort I saw firsthand in Austin. 

I think WVU will have no problem getting to at least 35 points and probably more. The Jayhawks put up at least 28 points in each of Jalon Daniels’s starts last year. These included a 34-28 loss to WVU in the last game that went over this total. The Mountaineers will have to do the heavy lifting here, but Kansas can do a little damage on offense now, which makes me confident that these teams will get to this over and then some!

Bet: Over 59.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

Bogman’s Week 2 Other Bets:

• UCF (-5) vs Louisville
• New Mexico vs. UTEP – Under 46.5
• USC (-7.5) @ Stanford
• Miss State (-10.5) @ Arizona
• WMU (-6.5) @ Ball State

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