College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)

Sep 12, 2022 - 7:14 PM

In Week 2, we prioritized quality over quantity regarding our under-the-radar plays. That strategy worked out, sort of.

Louisville took care of business, winning outright at UCF as 6.5-point underdogs. However, the result of the Georgia State game will hinge upon what number you got. Sadly, we got the Panthers at +7, which is a push in this column.

We went undefeated, at least. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling with a larger card in Week 3.

2022 season record: 3-1-2

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 3 College Football Power Rankings >>

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5) | Total 60 

Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET

You may remember the Hilltoppers as one of college football’s emerging teams from a season ago, as a high-powered passing game led by Bailey Zappe went 9-5 in 2021. Zappe is gone, but the 2-0 Hilltoppers still have a top-50 passing game nationally.

Western Kentucky will face its toughest test of the young season when they travel to Bloomington for a battle with the Hoosiers, who have struggled out of the gates. Despite a 2-0 record, things haven’t been pretty for IU. The Hoosiers won in Week 1 thanks to a late-game meltdown from Illinois. Last week, they trailed 10-0 to Idaho before rallying in the second half.

Indiana is a transfer-laden team that still seems to be getting its footing. Missouri transfer QB Connor Bazelak hasn’t been great, and neither has a pass defense that ranks 106th in the country in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.

Austin Reed, who transferred in from West Florida this offseason, now leads Western Kentucky. He’s so far been a good fit in coach Tyson Helton’s offense, and he should be able to move the ball against a lackluster Hoosiers defense.

I pounced on the opening number of Western Kentucky +9, but even at +6.5, this line has value.

The pick: Western Kentucky +6.5

New Mexico State Aggies at Wisconsin Badgers (-37.5) | Total 46.5

Say hello again to our friends at New Mexico State. The Aggies were featured in Week 1 when we took the under in their game against Minnesota. New Mexico State did their part in getting shutout in a 38-0 loss.

The Aggies are back on the road against a Big Ten foe as they travel to Madison to face a Badgers team that’s licking its wounds after losing to Washington State as 17-point home favorites. And once again, we’ll be looking at the total.

The Badgers’ offense isn’t outstanding. It ranks 92nd in scoring, 65th in total offense and only 41st in rushing, which is uncharacteristically low for them. Graham Mertz is a relatively pedestrian starting quarterback, which might be putting it nicely.

Once again, Wisconsin’s defense is dominant, ranking 11th in scoring defense and 16th in yards allowed. They should suffocate an Aggies offense that plays at a snail’s pace and ranks 130th in scoring and yards per game.

The worry is Wisconsin busts some big plays on the ground early and puts up 30+ in the first half. However, the Badgers have a massive road trip to Ohio State next weekend and will likely pull their starters as soon as they get a comfortable lead. For this game to go over, I’m guessing Wisconsin will have to win 49-0.

The pick: Under 46.5

Marshall Thundering Herd (-17.5) at Bowling Green Falcons | Total 52.5

This is a hold-your-nose-and-pray pick. Bowling Green has surrendered an average of 52 points and 530.5 yards per game to UCLA and Eastern Kentucky through two games. Marshall is averaging 40.5 points and 488 yards per game. But I’m taking a shot on a massive letdown spot for the Thundering Herd, who are coming off an incredible upset victory at Notre Dame.

The victory was Marshall’s second ever against a top-10 opponent and its first win against a Power 5 program since 2015. It was an emotional and physical victory. With their first-ever Sun Belt Conference game on deck next week, I hope the Thundering Herd isn’t as focused on the lowly Falcons. Don’t play this at +16.5 or lower.

The pick: Bowling Green +17.5

Charlotte 49ers at Georgia State Panthers (-19.5) | Total 60.5 

Here we go again. The Panthers are back in the under-the-radar column. They haven’t exactly delivered thus far, representing our only loss plus one push this season. But I’m expecting the Panthers to take out some of their frustrations on a 49ers team in disaster mode.

Where do we begin? Charlotte is a dumpster fire defensively. They’re allowing 46.7 points and 552.7 yards per game through three contests. Things haven’t gone much better offensively, as Charlotte ranks outside the top 100 in scoring and yardage. The 49ers are 0-3 ATS and have lost every game by at least 17 points. And only one of their first three games has come against a Power 5 opponent. The 49ers will likely start their third-string quarterback once again as starter Chris Reynolds continues to recover from a Week 0 injury.

Georgia State ranks 29th nationally in rushing offense, which is impressive considering they’ve opened the season against South Carolina and North Carolina. They should have no trouble running the ball effectively against Charlotte, who is surrendering 238 yards per game on the ground.

Don’t let us down this time, Panthers.

The pick: Georgia State -19.5 (play up to -20.5)

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