College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)

Sep 13, 2022 - 9:49 PM

College football’s Week 2 brought exciting games from start to finish. Massive upsets from Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and a host of others kept fans on the edge of their seats. For bettors that love to back longshot underdogs, it was especially exciting (and profitable). Since you’re reading this, that likely applies to you. The beauty of college football is that these longshot winners aren’t uncommon, but you need to know what to look for in picking them out of a loaded board for Week 3. As always, I will highlight some moneyline and longshot spread picks I like. Let’s take a look at the board.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 3 College Football Power Rankings >>

Oklahoma at Nebraska +13.5

Following another thrilling loss, the Scott Frost era at Nebraska is finally over. It seemed that no matter how well things would go during the game they could never manage to get out of their own way, regardless of the opponent. As they hope to turn a new leaf in Lincoln, long-time rival Oklahoma comes to town. Oklahoma has looked impressive in wins over UTEP and Kent State, but we don’t know what to expect from the Sooners as these opponents both rank in the bottom 20 in SP+ ratings. 

Texas transfer Casey Thompson will look to repeat his performance from his matchup with Oklahoma last year where he had a career-best 388 passing yards along with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. This team has the ability to move the ball and Oklahoma has yet to see an offense with this caliber of athleticism. This is a team that has hung with top 10 opponents regularly the last two seasons, including a one-possession loss in Norman last year. With Frost now out of the picture, perhaps Nebraska can finally exercise the demons that have plagued this program. The talent on these two rosters is closer than the spread would indicate and Nebraska’s offense should be able to keep them in this until the end.

Pick: Nebraska ML (+335)

South Alabama +15.5 at UCLA

South Alabama travels to the Rose Bowl to play UCLA in Week 3. They enter this contest as two-touchdown underdogs. The Jaguars, flying under the radar, have been impressive in their two contests of 2022. A Week 1 defensive domination of FCS Nicholls, who managed just 165 yards of total offense, was followed by a 38-24 win at Central Michigan that was not as close as the final score indicates. Central Michigan had managed to put up over 450 yards of offense per game since the beginning of last season but was held to just 348 by South Alabama’s defense, with 157 coming in garbage time after the game had been decided. This Jaguar defense is legitimate and can give UCLA problems.

UCLA will have its toughest test yet with South Alabama. Comfortable wins over Bowling Green (118th SP+) and Alabama State (FCS) haven’t really shown us what kind of team the Bruins are in 2022. South Alabama should be able to provide some resistance to this UCLA offense that has looked impressive against much more inferior opponents. If the Bruins aren’t careful, this South Alabama team will be able to keep this game tight in a road environment that is less than intimidating.

Pick: South Alabama +15.5 (-110)

UTSA +11 at Texas

Texas impressed everyone with their performance against Alabama in Week 2. Losing on a late field goal to last year’s national runner-up has hopes high in Austin. With QB Quinn Ewers out for at least the next few weeks, Hudson Card will remain the starter in this matchup. The offense sputtered a bit under Card as Texas was only able to produce 9 points in a little less than three quarters with him behind center.  The defense looked good in the matchup with Alabama but that may have more to do with an Alabama offense that had to rely a lot on Bryce Young running the ball against Utah State in their other data point thus far, a Utah State team that also got gashed on the ground by UConn and Weber State.

UTSA has played a tough early schedule in 2022 after a breakout 2021 season. They’ve come out of the gate with a triple-overtime loss to Houston and an overtime win over Army. The loss of star RB Sincere McCormick to the NFL has stunted the run offense at UTSA, but QB Frank Harris has stepped up, throwing for 696 yards and leading the team with 93 yards rushing in their two contests. The Roadrunners also tout three pass catchers with over 160 yards and 13 receptions through the first two games. UTSA can spread the ball around on the field and Harris can make you pay with his legs when necessary. Coming off of a massive game against Alabama, this is a typical spot for teams to slip up. Unfortunately for Texas, they don’t get a break with this UTSA team and are ripe for an upset.

Pick: UTSA ML (+310)

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