BK’s Bets: SEC Week 5 Bets

Sep 28, 2022 - 6:00 PM

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

Well, it was another rough week. I felt like we were on the right games, even if the results didn’t go our way. The Auburn vs. Mizzou game couldn’t have been any more drunk, the Arkansas game easily could have gone in the Razorbacks’ way, and Tennessee was pretty clearly the better team against the Gators. Alas, an 0-2-1 week is the end result. We’ll be better.

Record ATS by week:

• Week 1: 4-7
• Week 2: 0-2
• Week 3: 3-0
• Week 4: 0-2-1
• Season Total: 7-11-1 ATS

It’s been a wild ride early in the season. It’s a short slate, so it will be a more brief look at my best bets. Let’s get to the week five picks.

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WORTH A LOOK:

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Kentucky (+6.5) @ Ole Miss - 11:00 am on ESPN

• Ole Miss has played Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa. Kentucky has played Miami of Ohio, Youngstown State, Northern Illinois and Florida. Both had a game that was closer than expected (UNI for Kentucky, Tulsa for Ole Miss), but only Kentucky has a legitimate “big” win (at Florida). The underlying numbers indicate both teams are legit, but it’s hard to say how much of Ole Miss’ resume is built off of their relatively weak strength of schedule. I wonder how this game will look if Ole Miss is forced to throw in order to win. The Wildcats “held” Florida to 136 yards on the ground, and just 279 yards on offense. Can Jaxson Dar do what Anthony Richardson couldn’t? Is the running game good enough that he won’t need to? If anything, I like the under in this game. But I think it’s mostly a stay-away.

LSU (-9) @ Auburn - 6:00 pm on ESPN

• I think everyone here can agree after watching *gestures wildly toward Mizzou vs. Auburn highlights* that, Auburn is not particularly good. The defense is solid, but that team was fully prepared to give up that game at a moment’s notice. Bryan Harsin was able to keep his job for another week, but LSU should be able to change that at the end of the weekend. The Tigers from the bayou are good enough to take advantage of the opportunities Missouri couldn’t. Jayden Daniels is far from a perfect quarterback, but he has not yet thrown an interception and he’s been critical in the running game, as well. This could prove to be enough in another relatively low-scoring game at Jordan-Hare. I like LSU, but nine points is a lot to lay down for a team playing its first true road game this season.

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BK’S BEST BETS:

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Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (-3.5) - 3:00 pm on SEC Network

• If we know anything, it’s this: Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State will be close. The Aggies exclusively play one possession games. It’s The Jimbo Way. They lost to App State by three, beat Miami by eight and followed that up with a narrow 2-point victory at home against Arkansas. This is the first time Texas A&M will play a true road game, though. As long as Mississippi State doesn’t melt down in the fourth quarter as they (see: fumbled punt, two 3-and-outs and an interception on their final five possessions), and allow 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter as they did at LSU, I feel good about this projection. Texas A&M’s defense is the best unit on the field, but the Aggies’ offense leaves too much to be desired. Give me Mississippi State, 20-13.

Georgia (-28) @ Mizzou - 6:30 pm on SEC Network

• Someone explain this line to me, please. Georgia beat Oregon by 46 and South Carolina (on the road) by 41. Georgia has defeated Missouri 43-6, 49-14 and 27-0 over the past three seasons. What, exactly, has Missouri shown you offensively to indicate the Tigers can score enough to keep this within 28 points? I think this line is far too reactionary to Georgia’s strange performance last week against Kent State than it needs to be. The Bulldogs will be fully prepared for this business trip to Columbia. It shouldn’t be a surprise if Georgia’s special teams and defense outscore Missouri’s offense. That’s how good this Bulldogs unit is when it’s clicking. Give me Georgia, 38-6.

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NO STRONG LEAN:

Alabama @ Arkansas (+17) - 2:30 pm on CBS

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NO LINE:

Eastern Washington @ Florida - 11:00 am on ESPN+

South Carolina State @ South Carolina - 11:00 on SEC Network

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Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.