Bad Gambling Advice: Week 5

Sep 29, 2022 - 6:33 PM

Last week: 8-4 ATS, 6-6 totals

Season to date: 19-22 ATS, 23-17-1 totals

The gambling advice, it was strangely good last week. (I mean, aside from the fact is that the best gambling advice is “don’t bet actual money on these games, you moron.”) I mean, sure, the Kent State-Georgia under and Arkansas +2.5 just barely hit, by the skin of their teeth. Then again, Kansas State won outright as a 13-point underdog at Oklahoma, and losing Tennessee -10.5 was a really bad beat, what with Florida scoring a touchdown with under a minute left in a game that was 38-27.

This means, of course, that the losing will start this week. Or we will have to rename the column.

Also, the SEC schedule this week gives us a Thursday game and a Sunday game thanks to Hurricane Ian.

South Carolina State at South Carolina (6:00 PM CT Thursday, SEC Network): You know, it would be a lot more fun if the SEC did Thursday night games under normal conditions and not just “we moved this in case Ian is dumping gallons of rain over South Carolina on Saturday.” Anyway, sure South Carolina State is an FCS team; you’re also kind of dumb if you think Shane Beamer is about to cover 39.5 under the circumstances.

Score prediction: South Carolina 38, South Carolina State 7

Picks: South Carolina State +39.5, Under 57

Kentucky at Ole Miss (11:00 AM CT, ESPN): Oh boy, are Ole Miss fans pissed about this game being at 11 AM, in a way that the Jefferson Pilot Champs are normally not about playing at that hour. This being homecoming might be part of that, but this also gets into the weird deal that a lot of SEC football fans have about treating an 11 AM game as an insult from the conference office and ESPN. As for the game, well, I’m not a Kentucky believer. I will be proven wrong.

Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, Kentucky 17

Picks: Ole Miss -7, Under 54

Oklahoma at TCU (11:00 AM CT, ABC): While I’m not super confident in Oklahoma, and why would I be after they blew a home game against Kansas State, I am also convinced that TCU is kind of fraudulent at this point of the season. I mean, they struggled with a team coached by Karl Dorrell. As such, I cannot in good faith pick them to cover.

Score prediction: Oklahoma 45, TCU 28

Picks: Oklahoma -6.5, Over 69

Alabama at Arkansas (2:30 PM CT, CBS): Look, I’m not going to go as far as to say this is going to be the one early-ish game a year Alabama stupidly loses, but I’m also not not saying that.

Score prediction: Alabama 38, Arkansas 24

Picks: Arkansas +17, Over 61

Texas A&M at Mississippi State (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network): I’m just really not a believer in either of these teams, which means that this game will inevitably be close, low-scoring, and stupid. I predict that Mississippi State will win but NOT cover, an achievement when the spread is 3.5.

Score prediction: Mississippi State 23, Texas A&M 20

Picks: Texas A&M +3.5, Under 45.5

LSU at Auburn (6:00 PM CT, ESPN): My main prediction here is that Bryan Harsin will be unemployed no later than Monday.

Score prediction: LSU 24, Auburn 7

Picks: LSU -8, Under 46.5

Georgia at Missouri (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network): Lordy, this is going to be awful to watch. You know that Kirby has been on his team’s ass all week about giving up 22 points to Kent State and that defense is about to face a team that has lost games by (a) throwing four interceptions in a row and (b) whiffing a game-winning field goal to end regulation and then fumbling at the goal line untouched on what would have been the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

Score prediction: Georgia 45, Missouri 0

Picks: Georgia -29, Under 54.5

West Virginia at Texas (6:30 PM CT, FS1): On the one hand, you can make a compelling argument that Texas is going to be mad about losing a game in Lubbock that they had no business losing. On the other hand, I’m just really not all that convinced that Texas is back.

Score prediction: Texas 35, West Virginia 28

Picks: West Virginia +9.5, Over 62.5

Eastern Washington at Florida (11:00 AM CT Sunday, ESPN+): You probably looked at this and thought “oh no Florida, what is you doing,” but the truth is that Eastern Washington is having kind of a down year and probably isn’t about to threaten Florida.

Score prediction: Florida 56, Eastern Washington 24

Picks: Florida -29.5, Over 73