Baylor vs. Oklahoma State—Prediction Thread

Sep 30, 2022 - 9:00 PM

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MATCHUP: #16 Baylor Bears (3-1, 1-0) vs. #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0, 0-0)
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 2022
OURDAILYPODCAST: ISU Recap and OSU Preview.
OTHER PODCASTS: Please Bear With Me | Bear Den | Locked on Baylor | Between Two Bears | BearsIllustrated | SicEm365
ODB QUICK HITTER: OSU.
ODB STATISTICAL PREVIEW: OSU.
HOW TO WATCH / ROLL CALL: OSU.
SPREAD: Baylor -2.5 (opened at Baylor -1.5 on Sunday), O/U 56
TV COVERAGE: FOX, 2:30 PM CT
UNIFORM: ALL. GOLD. EVERYTHING.

I already posted something earlier about the weather and the fact that we are not (as of right now) having a Virtual Watch Party this week, so we can skip right to the good stuff.

ODB STAFF PREDICTIONS:

So the 12 ODB and ODB-Adjacent folks that picked Baylor last week turned out to be right (and me, wrong), as did the 33 voters in our poll that picked Baylor to win by 7-13 points a “medium” margin. Leading the pack in our staff predictions were Evan Hebert (off by 3 at 28-24), Branden MacKinnon (same), Will Boles (off by 4 at 31-28). Congrats to all!

Here’s this week’s predictions:

• Matt Wilson (@mattisbear): Baylor 41, OSU 34.
• Peter Pope (@pbpope): Baylor 41, OSU 24.
• David Fankhauser (@dfank_bu): Baylor 31, OSU 21.
• Amy Pagitt (@AGP4BU): STAND BY, TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES
• Etta (@bayloretta): Baylor 53, OSU 28.
• Evan Hebert (@evanhebert): Baylor 31, OSU 21.
• Joe Goodman (@the_joe_goodman): Baylor 31, OSU 21.
• Cody Orr (@cody_orr): Baylor 35, OSU 27
• Branden MacKinnon (@Branden_MacK): Baylor 35, OSU 28.
• Michael Nichols (@pckt_chng): Baylor 31, OSU 21.
• Jenna Patteson (@jenp108): Baylor 38, OSU 24.
• Noelle Kakimoto (@NKakimoto): Baylor 31, OSU 28.
• Will Boles (@_willboles): Baylor 31, OSU 17.
• Jed Johnston (@BearMySoul17): Baylor 31, OSU 27.
• Scott Byrne (@BearNTex): Baylor 41, OSU 21.
• Fielding Montgomery (@FieldinOfDreams): Baylor 38, OSU 27.
• Deonte Epps (@DEppsRightStepS): Baylor 35, OSU 24.
• Max Garner (@MAXgBU21): Baylor 27, OSU 17.

/looks at all 17 (current) predictions above going for Baylor.
//looks at all the predictions on other sites going for Baylor.
///feels overwhelming urge not to pick Baylor just to break up the combo.
////questions overwhelming urge to zig when others zag, like these predictions are at all outcome determinative or even influential.
/////thinks about what I’ve said before about the so-called Tenth Man Rule (about a game where we ended up all being wrong, by the way).
//////turns and looks out window, sighs.

I’m taking Baylor, too.

Going back to the last time we played OSU at home in the disaster that ended the 2020 season (and Larry Fedora’s brief tenure as Baylor OC, though I’m still not sure it was all or even mostly his fault), Baylor has won 9 games in a row at McLane Stadium. We are a better team at home in front of our own fans (which is not unusual for college—or even pro—teams). OSU is coming off a bye week that gave them extra time to prepare, but I don’t think they have the defense this year to hold up against Baylor for the entire game. That’s not to say the game will be easy—OSU has historically been good on offense under Mike Gundy and looks to be pretty good again—but I think they will have trouble stopping Baylor early when the Bears throw to open up the run (like we did against ISU) as shown below, and when Spencer Sanders inevitably gives the ball away, creating short fields, it’s only going to get worse.

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401404083

OSU’s own struggles running the ball (see below) play right into Baylor’s desire to make them one-dimensional, which only increases the pressure on Sanders to carry the OSU offense.

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401404083

I’ve seen predictions elsewhere as high as 40-17 or thereabouts, and I’m not ready to do that. But I do think Baylor will win, in part because of the gold-clad masses cheering them. This game could end up looking eerily similar to BYU last year where the Bears took a 17-7 lead into halftime and ended up grinding the Cougars down in the second half en route to a 38-24 win.

My Prediction: Baylor 35, OSU 24.