Bogman’s College Football Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)

Oct 13, 2022 - 5:03 PM

Bogman is back with his Week 7 predictions and suggested best bets.

Week 6 Record: 5-5
2022 Season Record: 39-21

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>

UTSA (-33.5) @ FIU & OVER 63.5

We are picking on FIU again but picking against FIU and picking UTSA has been pretty good to me for a while now, so I love both sides.  UTSA is a highly efficient offensive team. They have scored at least 31 points in four of five games, with the only game under that being against Texas. FIU has allowed 30 or more points in four of five games and, on average, has allowed opponents to score 17 points more than they average per game. UTSA is averaging 37.3 PPG so that would put them at 54 points, and at that point, we are just asking for FIU to score 10 points to get to our total.

FIU has won two games, but they beat New Mexico State, which might be one of the very few FBS teams that are actually worse than them, and Bryant, an FCS opponent that is currently at 2-4. FIU ranks 99th or lower in passing, rushing, and scoring defense. UTSA is a pass-heavy team, but FIU let Western Kentucky run for 210 yards against them in the blowout loss. They average fewer rushing yards than UTSA, even with that game included.

This game is on a Friday, which means both teams have less time to prepare. This also favors UTSA, which has brought back a lot of experience. This isn’t a look-ahead week for the Roadrunners either, as they have North Texas at home next week. As I’m writing this, there is about a 40% chance of rain which I don’t think will really affect the outcome. UTSA has experience and continuity while FIU is rebuilding. I feel like the final score is going to be similar to the WKU game for FIU, and the Roadrunners win in an absolute beatdown!

Pick: UTSA -33.5 (-110) and OVER 63.5 (-110)

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California @ Colorado UNDER 49

Once again, we are picking on a bottom-feeder team here in Colorado who is currently 0-5 and has scored 17 points or fewer in four of five games. I don’t really want to touch the spread here, as Colorado fired Karl Dorrell after last week’s game, and they have a chance to respond here as most teams will after firing an ineffective coach.

Cal is a little bit of a mystery when it comes to offense. They only rank above average (statistically) in passing yards and are ranked low in almost all PFF offensive grades. One that stands out among the PFF grades is that they actually rank 3rd in run grade behind the outstanding freshman RB Jaydn Ott but also rank 122nd of 131 teams in run blocking. This means anything Ott gets, he’s mainly creating by himself, making him even more impressive.  

The defensive side for Cal is also a bit one-sided in that they are top 40 against the rush but 109th against the pass. PFF grades are rough on Cal’s defense, too, ranking them 86th or lower in every defensive grade, and they are particularly bad at rushing the QB, ranking 130th.  

The good news is that Colorado is even more inept on the offensive side. Colorado is one of 3 teams averaging under 14 PPG, one of 27 teams averaging less than 200 yards passing, and they are 108th in rushing. This is a chance for Colorado to straighten out their offense against a poor defensive team, but 21 points would end up being a season-high. California should win this game going away, but we do have the aforementioned ‘dead cat bounce’ game after Dorrell’s firing and the possible look-ahead game for the Bears as they have Washington next week. I’ll bet that both of these offenses are hard to watch, and we end up well below the 49 total.

Pick: Under 49 (-110)

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James Madison (-12) @ Georgia Southern

This is all about riding the hot hand, and no one is hotter than the James Madison Dukes! James Madison is undefeated against the spread this season, and they are doing it with an extremely efficient offense and a defense that has played stronger than expected. The Dukes are led by transfer QB Todd Centenio who has a 15/1 TD to INT rate, has a top 10-QB grade, and is 4th in PFF grade among QBs. WR Kris Thornton leads JMU in receptions, receiving yards, and TDs, and the run game is scattered among three RBs and Centenio, that all add up to an average of over 200 yards per game.  

Georgia Southern is moving their offense from a triple-option system under former HC Chad Lunsford to a pass-heavy system under Clay Helton. The transition is better than expected, with GS currently at 11th in passing yards per game and 28th in PPG. The run game hasn’t slipped as much as expected, coming in just above average nationally with 170 yards per game. The issue for Georgia Southern has been the turnovers. QB Kyle Vantrease has thrown 11 INTs to 13 TDs, and even with the defense earning over a turnover a game, Southern is still down five turnovers for the season, which is tied for 6th worst in the country.

I mentioned before that James Madison has a strong defense, but I may have undersold them. JMU is holding teams to 15 PPG (14th), is allowing less than 200 yards per game, and is first in rushing yards allowed as the only team giving up less than 50 yards per game. James Madison puts points on the board and then brings pressure when teams are passing to catch up. They have 18 sacks on the season, and those are spread out among 10 players. 

If the game script turns out as we expect, it will not be a good look for a QB that has as many turnovers as Vantrease. Georgia Southern’s defense is average against the pass statistically and in PFF grades, but they are ranked 126th against the run and have a rough tackling grade. If Vantrease can play mistake-free, Georgia Southern could be in this game, but that is doubtful, and James Madison will be too strong for them to handle. The Dukes win by two TD or more!

Pick: James Madison -12 (-115)

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Western Kentucky (-5.5) @ Middle Tennessee State

I feel like MTSU is getting a little bit too much respect with this line. Middle Tennessee had one of the biggest upsets I’ve seen, beating the Hurricanes on their own home turf in Week 4, and they should be proud!  It was a huge win for the program, but the other five games they played went exactly as expected. 

MTSU beat Colorado State and FCS Tennessee State but was beaten by James Madison, UTSA, and UAB. I thought MTSU had a chance against UAB as 10-point underdogs, but UAB smashed them by 27 last week. Every game that MTSU has lost, they have lost against the spread, and I believe they will lose this game.

Western Kentucky matches up well with MTSU because they sling the rock! WKU has a top-3 passing offense in the country, behind only Washington by two yards and Texas Tech by 10. QB Austin Reed hadn’t thrown for 350 in a game before the 73-0 thrashing of FIU, but in the two games since, he has gone for 406 and 373. Reed is on a heater, and MTSU is BAD against the aerial attack this season. They rank 119th in passing yards against, allowing over 280 yards per game, and 105th in QB Rating against. The three losses have been particularly bad: 278 yards to UAB’s Dylan Hopkins (season-high), 414 yards to Frank Harris of UTSA (season-high), and 287 yards to James Madison’s Todd Centenio (which wasn’t a season-high, but his six passing TDs were).

MTSU has been hit-or-miss on offense this season, putting up over 40 points twice and 30 or more twice, but also has been held to seven in Week 1 and only 14 last week against UAB. WKU statistically ranks slightly above average on defense and grades out as slightly below average, according to PFF. MTSU has made some six plays over 50 yards which are tied for 6th-most in the country, but half of those came against Miami. WKU hasn’t given up a 50-yard play yet this season. This is a bad matchup for MTSU, and all we are asking them to cover is 5.5 points. I think they do that and then some!

Pick: Western Kentucky -5.5 (-110)

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Other bets I Like:

• #16 Miss State (-4) @ #22 Kentucky
• Eastern Michigan (-2) vs. Northern Illinois
• #19 Kansas (+7) @ Oklahoma
• #22 Texas vs. Iowa State OVER 49.5
• Tulane (-11.5) @ USF

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