College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions (2022)

Oct 13, 2022 - 12:41 PM

We had another incredible week at 7-3-1 ATS. Underdogs performed well again, 4-2-1, with two ML outright winners (Utah State and Navy), along with Iowa State narrowly missing a victory. Favorites went 3-1 ATS and 4-0 ML, you could have easily fit them into any parlay or round-robin of your choosing. UCONN and Georgia State were never in doubt, and Notre Dame led by 19 points late in the 3rd quarter. Oregon State played down to Stanford and eeked out a win in the 4th quarter.

Now to the bad. MTSU and UTEP got absolutely destroyed in every aspect, but that’s okay because we can’t win them all. So let’s dive into this week.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>

Overview

For anyone reading this for the first time, the thought process is simple; we are targeting teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at four main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, and Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness).

There are several angles at play:

• An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
• An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
• A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and fewer overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. put this allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

• Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
• Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
• Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
• Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

• Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
• Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
• Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
• Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)

Let’s dive into the 10 games we are going to target.

Penn State @ Michigan

Michigan

• 103rd Pass Rate

Penn State

• 2nd Def Stuff Rate
• 4th Def Line Yards
• 34th Def Rush Success Rate
• 54th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Minnesota @ Illinois

Minnesota

• 118th Pass Rate

Illinois

• 48th Def Stuff Rate
• 15th Def Line Yards
• 1st Def Rush Success Rate
• 119th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Kansas @ Oklahoma

Kansas

• 108th Pass Rate

Oklahoma

• 117th Def Stuff Rate
• 122nd Def Line Yards
• 102nd Def Rush Success Rate
• 100th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Arkansas @ BYU

Arkansas

• 127th Pass Rate

BYU

• 113th Def Stuff Rate
• 121st Def Line Yards
• 103rd Def Rush Success Rate
• 30th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Washington State @ Oregon State

Oregon State

• 100th Pass Rate

Washington State

• 22nd Def Stuff Rate
• 25th Def Line Yards
• 46th Def Rush Success Rate
• 36th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Air Force @ UNLV

Air Force

• 131st Pass Rate

UNLV

• 111th Def Stuff Rate
• 123rd Def Line Yards
• 111th Def Rush Success Rate
• 16th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green

Miami (OH)

• 107th Pass Rate

Bowling Green

• 120th Def Stuff Rate
• 115th Def Line Yards
• 100th Def Rush Success Rate
• 118th Def Rush IsoPPP

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Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan

Northern Illinois

• 111th Pass Rate
  

Eastern Michigan

• 129th Def Stuff Rate
• 103rd Def Line Yards
• 92nd Def Rush Success Rate
• 5th in Def Rush IsoPPP

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James Madison @ Georgia Southern

James Madison

• 106th Pass Rate

Georgia Southern

• 112th Def Stuff Rate
• 119th Def Line Yards
• 108th Def Rush Success Rate
• Def Rush IsoPPP

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Utah State @ Colorado State

Utah State

• 112th Pass Rate

Colorado State

• 23rd Def Stuff Rate
• 32nd Def Line Yards
• 42nd Def Rush Success Rate
• 106th Def Rush IsoPPP

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The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the ten games we are going to target this week

• Kansas (+7.5) and Northern Illinois (+2.5) are the two underdogs that are top-30 in rush rates
• Penn State (+6.5), Illinois (+6.5), Washington State (+3), and Colorado State (+10.5) are the four underdogs who boast stout numbers against their rush-heavy opponents
• Arkansas (-1.5), Air Force (-9.5), Miami OH (-6.5), and James Madison (-10.5) are the favorites with top-30 rush rates vs. questionable defenses.

We have several teams that we were on last week that we will not be on this week and vice versa. Again we have some solid value across the board.

Let’s start with the underdogs by going back to the well again with Kansas. Oklahoma is reeling after arguably the most embarrassing loss in program history. Critics feel like this is a bounce-back spot for them, but I couldn’t disagree more. Kansas will dictate this game’s tempo and script from the onset. Illinois is another recurring team from two weeks ago (vs. Wisconsin). They will try to duplicate a performance that left everyone at Camp Randall shell-shocked.

Now let’s get to the favorites. I’m especially not a fan of laying points with favorites, especially anything over 7 points, but we can mitigate that by parlaying together the MLs of the larger favorites (James Madison and Air Force). Arkansas will face a BYU team that was on this write-up last week that got handled by Utah State, a team that was covering the whole game and ended up pulling away in the end. We can better predict game script and flow by targeting teams with an established offensive identity. This week I believe we can do a combination of things to attack value. Moneyline round-robin parlays are where I will focus my attention, along with a possible smaller teaser of 3pts.

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Round Robin Parlay x4 ($5)

• Illinois +205
• Penn State +220
• Kansas +255
• Arkansas -120
• Northern Illinois +120
• Washington State +150

By 4s = 15 combinations ($5)= $75 wagered max possible winnings of $3876.91

If you want to do less, that’s totally understandable. 

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Parlay Buying Pts/Teaser

• Illinois +9.5
• Colorado State +13.5
• Air Force ML
• James Madison ML
• Miami (OH) ML
• Kansas 10.5
• Washington State +6
• Penn State +9.5

Buying 3pts on the underdogs moves it from -110 to -165. 

This parlay brings your odds to +2128. Remember, you can interchange the underdogs or add less to change the odds. This is just an example of a way to attack it.

As always, thanks for reading, and good luck with all your bets this weekend!!!

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