College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)

Oct 19, 2022 - 2:21 PM

Week 7 of the college football season brought us easily the best slate of action of the 2022 season. It also brought us our second consecutive 3-1 week (4-1 if you played the lean on Arkansas moneyline).

Speaking of Arkansas, the over in their game against BYU was one of our easiest wins of the year. The Kent State-Toledo under… let’s choose never to discuss that again.

We’ll aim to keep the momentum rolling in Week 8.

Season record: 15-10-1

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

UAB Blazers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2 Total 57.5

UAB and Western Kentucky collide for a critical Sun Belt showdown, with both teams sitting at 2-1 in conference play. While former Hilltoppers QB Bailey Zappe is doing good things for Bill Belichick, the Western Kentucky passing game continues to thrive. WKU ranks sixth nationally in passing offense, averaging 344 yards per game.

The problem is that UAB matches up well against the Hilltoppers. The Blazers have a talented secondary that ranks 15th in pass defense, surrendering just 176.2 yards per game through the air.

The way to beat UAB is on the ground, where they’re giving up 143 yards per game. However, Western Kentucky ranks just 77th running the ball.

The key will be UAB finding ways to move the ball on the ground against a Hilltoppers defense that’s been stout against the run thus far. I’m backing the short-road underdog in this conference clash.

The pick: UAB +2

Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers -14, Total 52.5

This feels like too many points to give a Vanderbilt team that isn’t good but is making strides. The Commodores’ pass defense is wretched, but Missouri’s 101th-ranked passing game doesn’t have the goods to take advantage.

Vanderbilt should’ve covered as 17-point road underdogs against Ole Miss, but Lane Kiffin opted to run up the score rather than take knees when the game was over. This line suggests that Ole Miss is only three points better than Missouri. That just doesn’t add up. Take the Commodores to stay within this number.

The pick: Vanderbilt +14

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Colorado State Rams -5, Total 46.5

This is a disgusting battle between two of the worst teams in the country. And while CSU has no business laying five points against anyone, I’m not going to take the points with a miserable Hawaii team traveling from the island.

Instead, I’m returning to the well and banking on this game being as ugly as we expect. Hawaii averages 18.9 points per game, while Colorado State averages 12.2 points. The Rams run at one of the slowest paces in the nation and haven’t had a single game go over the total yet. Hawaii is 5-2 to the under and 2-1 on the mainland.

Embrace the ugly. Take the under.

The pick: Under 47

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